Friday, June 13, 2008

Email to a Friend

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone poll in Oregon shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 52% to 38%. That’s a significant improvement for Obama compared to a month ago when he led the presumptive Republican nominee by six percentage points. In three consecutive Oregon polls, McCain has never received more than 40% support when matched against Obama. In the current poll, McCain attracts just 68% support from Republican voters in the state.

The poll also found that the race would be somewhat closer if Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination. In that match-up, Clinton attracts 46% of the vote while McCain earns 40%. The Oregon Senate race also has the potential to be troubling for the GOP.

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, Obama leads McCain 49% to 39% in Oregon. With a three-poll average, McCain leads Clinton by just a single point, 44% to 43%.

Obama remains the most popular of the three candidates and is viewed favorably by 61% of Oregon voters. McCain earns favorable reviews from 52% while Clinton is viewed positively by 47%. Those perceptions are relatively unchanged over the past month.

Oregon has cast its Electoral College votes for the Democrats in five consecutive Presidential Elections. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of doing so again. However, during those five elections, no Democrat has earned more than 52% support in the state. Three of the five Democratic victories were earned with 47% of the vote or less. In Election 2004, John Kerry defeated George W. Bush in Oregon 51% to 47%. At the time this poll was released, Oregon was ranked as “Likely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Oregon voters oppose proposals for a federal gas tax holiday. Just 35% support the concept. Nationally, voters are evenly divided on the question.

Just 33% believe the federal government needs more revenue to fund important national programs. Fifty-one percent (51%) disagree.

Forty-nine percent (49%) are worried that the next President will raise taxes so much that it harms the economy. Thirty-seven percent (37%) are worried the next President will cut taxes so much that it harms important government programs.

Sixty-one percent (61%) oppose increasing the capital gains tax and 49% believe such a tax hike would harm the economy.

Just 29% of Oregon voters say that President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job. That’s down three points from a month ago. Twice as many, 57%, say he is doing a poor job.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.