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Ohio Now a Toss-up

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Ohio finds John McCain with 47% of the vote while Barack Obama picks up 46%. That’s a slippage of three percentage points for McCain since Sunday night. In four previous surveys conducted over the past month, McCain has held an advantage ranging from three to seven points.

Similar trends have been found nationally as the recent economic crisis has unfolded: Support for McCain has declined while Obama’s totals remain steady.

Just eight percent (8%) of Ohio voters rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent while 54% say it's poor. Only three percent (3%) say it’s getting better while 54% say it’s heading in the opposite direction.

Thirty-five percent (35%) say the housing market will get better within a year, including four percent (4%) who say it’s already getting better. However, 37% say there’s no end in sight to the housing crunch.

As the economy continues to struggle, 64% of Ohio voters say creating economic growth is more important than reducing the income gap between rich and poor. This is similar to the national average. Sixty-eight percent (68%) believe that McCain is more interested in creating growth while 64% believe Obama is more interested in reducing the gap between rich and poor.

McCain is supported by 88% of Republicans and has a modest advantage among unaffiliated voters. Obama wins the vote from 90% of Democrats. Obama leads among those who make less than $40,000 a year while McCain leads among those who earn more (full demographic crosstabs available for Premium Members).

McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of Ohio voters, Obama by 50%. Those figures are unchanged from the previous survey.

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Ohio, with its 20 Electoral College votes, a classic swing state. George W. Bush carried it in both 2000 and 2004, but Democrat Bill Clinton won Ohio in the two previous presidential elections. Rasmussen Markets data shows that McCain is currently given a % chance of carrying Ohio this November.

With release of this poll, Ohio moves from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right-hand corner of this article.

Presidential polling has been released this week for California, Colorado, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling data are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

Ohio Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

49%

48%

45%

Obama (D)

49%

48%

48%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 23, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Ohio Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

49%

49%

10/26/2008

45%

49%

10/19/2008

49%

47%

10/14/2008

49%

49%

10/12/2008

47%

49%

10/05/2008

48%

47%

09/28/2008

48%

47%

09/24/2008

47%

46%

09/21/2008

50%

46%

09/14/2008

48%

45%

09/08/2008

51%

44%

08/18/2008

45%

41%

08/21/2008

46%

40%

06/17/2008

44%

43%

05/14/2008

45%

44%

04/08/2008

47%

40%

03/13/2008

46%

40%

02/19/2008

42%

41%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Ohio

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

36%

40%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

10%

Somewhat Unfavorable

19%

11%

Very Unfavorable

20%

37%

Not Sure

3%

3%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.