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Ohio: McCain 45% Obama 44%

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Ohio shows a toss-up between John McCain and Barack Obama. McCain attracts support from 45% of the Buckeye State’s Likely Voters while Obama earns support from 44%. Nationally, the race between McCain and Obama is also very competitive in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In Ohio, McCain leads by seven percentage points among men but trails by four among women. The presumptive Republican nominee is supported by 77% of GOP voters while Obama attracts 65% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama leads by McCain by thirteen percentage points.

Following a pattern visible in many other states, McCain leads among middle income voters, those earning $20,000 to $75,000 annually. Obama leads among those who make less than $20,000 and those earning more than $75,000 a year. McCain also leads among those who attend church regularly while Obama leads among those who rarely or never attend services.

The current poll reflects an improvement for Obama. He trailed by seven percentage points a month ago and six points two months ago. Both of those polls were conducted following the hard-fought primary campaign in Ohio between Obama and Hillary Clinton. Before the Democratic Primary, the race in Ohio was essentially the same as it is today with McCain enjoying a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Obama.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning Ohio’s twenty-one Electoral College votes this November. Expectations for Republicans are at %. Immediately prior to release of this poll, Ohio was rated as a “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. In terms of Electoral College votes, Ohio is currently the largest of the Toss-Up states.

McCain is viewed favorably by 53% of Buckeye State voters, Obama by 47%. For McCain, that figure is unchanged over the past month while Obama’s favorable rating has dropped three points.

While it is unlikely that Clinton will win the Democratic Presidential nomination, she does outperform Obama in Ohio. She leads McCain 50% to 43% and is supported by 83% of the state’s Democratic voters (compared to 65% for Obama). Clinton has a significant lead over McCain among Ohio voters who earn less than $60,000 annually.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of Ohio voters say the economy is the top issue of Election 2008 while 14% name National Security as the most important voting issue. Eleven percent (11%) believe the War in Iraq is the highest priority. Among voters who name the economy as the top issue, Obama leads McCain 53% to 35%. Among those who believe National Security is most important, McCain leads 86% to 5%. Voters who see the War in Iraq as the top issue are fairly evenly divided between Obama and McCain.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Ohio voters favor a federal gas tax holiday for the summer while 42% are opposed. Those figures are similar to the national average.

Just 26% of Ohio voters believe the federal government needs more revenue to fund important government programs. Sixty-one percent (61%) disagree and say the federal government already has enough money.

Sixty-seven percent (67%) are worried that the next President will raise taxes so much that it harms the economy. Nationally, 60% believe that tax hikes are bad for the economy.

In Ohio, just 36% are worried that the next President will cut taxes so much that it harms important government programs.

By a 64% to 22% margin, Ohio voters oppose an increase in the capital gains tax increase. Nationally, 65% of voters oppose a capital gains tax hike.

Forty-six percent (46%) of Ohio voters own at least $5,000 worth of stocks, bonds, and mutual funds.

Just 13% believe that the United States is generally heading in the right direction while 81% believe the nation has gotten off on the wrong track. Those figures are similar to the national average.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of Ohio voters say Governor Ted Strickland is doing a good or an excellent job. That’s up three percentage points from a month ago. Just 16% say he is doing a poor job.

President Bush receives much lower grades—only 33% say he is doing a good or excellent job. That’s down seven points from a month ago. While Bush won the White House by capturing a majority of Ohio votes four years ago, most Buckeye State voters (51%) now say the President is doing a poor job.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

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Ohio Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

49%

48%

45%

Obama (D)

49%

48%

48%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 15, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Ohio Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

49%

49%

10/26/2008

45%

49%

10/19/2008

49%

47%

10/14/2008

49%

49%

10/12/2008

47%

49%

10/05/2008

48%

47%

09/28/2008

48%

47%

09/24/2008

47%

46%

09/21/2008

50%

46%

09/14/2008

48%

45%

09/08/2008

51%

44%

08/18/2008

45%

41%

08/21/2008

46%

40%

06/17/2008

44%

43%

05/14/2008

45%

44%

04/08/2008

47%

40%

03/13/2008

46%

40%

02/19/2008

42%

41%

Ohio Trends: McCain vs. Clinton

Date

McCain

Clinton

5/14/2008

43%

50%

4/08/2008

47%

42%

3/13/2008

46%

40%

2/19/2008

46%

43%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Ohio

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

36%

40%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

10%

Somewhat Unfavorable

19%

11%

Very Unfavorable

20%

37%

Not Sure

3%

3%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.