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McCain-Obama Tied in Ohio, Just 53% Very Confident Votes Will Be Properly Counted

Barack Obama and John McCain are now all tied up at 49% each in the battleground state of Ohio, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey.

A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone poll conducted a few days earlier showed Obama leading McCain 49% to 47% in Ohio.

But only 53% of Ohio voters are now Very Confident that the votes will be properly counted and the right candidate declared the victor. Another 34% are Somewhat Confident in the outcome.

Forty-five (45%) say people who shouldn’t be allowed to vote are likely to vote on Election Day. Just 28% say it’s more likely that some who are eligible will be denied the chance to vote.

Late Wednesday, Ohio's attorney general filed an emergency appeal with the U.S. Supreme Court in hopes of blocking a lower court ruling that could prevent thousands of Ohio voters from voting on Election Day.

Numerous lawsuits over voter eligibility are already at play in Ohio, where over 600,000 new voters have registered this year. Republicans question the legitimacy of voters registered by the liberal activist group ACORN, now under investigation in Ohio, Nevada and other states. Democrats say Republicans are just trying to eliminate and discourage voters in states where the party's candidates are at risk.

Eighty percent (80%) of Ohio voters believe people who want to vote should be required to show a driver’s license prior to casting a ballot.

Nationally, 76% believe a person should be required to show photo identification at the polls before being allowed to vote.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

McCain’s support in Ohio has ticked up two points in this latest poll, but the long-term trend has been in Obama’s direction. This is the 10th straight poll in the state dating back to mid-August in which support for Obama has either increased or remained stable. It’s the second straight poll in which Obama has enjoyed support from 49%, his highest total of the year.

McCain’s high-water mark in Ohio came in early September when he enjoyed a 51% to 44% advantage over Obama. However, he has failed to reach the 50% level of support in five consecutive polls conducted since late September.

The broad trends in Ohio are consistent with national polling trends. In mid-September, just before the financial meltdown became visible, John McCain had a very slight lead nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. However, for the past three weeks, Obama has enjoyed a four-to-eight point advantage every single day. Obama has also built a significant advantage in the Electoral College.

Currently, Obama has the edge in every state won by John Kerry four years ago. Of the states won by George W. Bush in 2004, McCain is trailing in four, and five others are considered toss-ups. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 300-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.

The latest Ohio poll was conducted the night before the final presidential debate. Rasmussen Reports will be polling the state again on Sunday.

Forty-six percent (46%) of Ohio voters say the tone of Obama’s campaign has been generally positive while just 27% say the same about McCain’s campaign.

Currently, McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of Ohio voters, Obama favorably by 54%.

Obama now leads 51% to 46% among unaffiliated voters in Ohio. He also leads by five among women while trailing by five among men (See full demographic crosstabs.)

Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a % chance of winning Ohio this November. Ohio is currently considered a “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right-hand corner of this article.

New polling on the presidential race was released this week from the closely-contested states of Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Missouri. See an overview of the state polls and the latest Electoral College projections. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary).

Recent statewide presidential polls also have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico , North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Washington. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members . Learn More .

Governor Ted Strickland earns good or excellent job approval ratings from 50% of Ohio voters, while 15% say he is doing a poor job.

President Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 32% of voters in Ohio, while 50% give his job performance a poor rating.

Only 52% say elections are fair to voters, but 83% still believe one person’s vote really does matter.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

Ohio Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

49%

48%

45%

Obama (D)

49%

48%

48%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 14, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Ohio Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

49%

49%

10/26/2008

45%

49%

10/19/2008

49%

47%

10/14/2008

49%

49%

10/12/2008

47%

49%

10/05/2008

48%

47%

09/28/2008

48%

47%

09/24/2008

47%

46%

09/21/2008

50%

46%

09/14/2008

48%

45%

09/08/2008

51%

44%

08/18/2008

45%

41%

08/21/2008

46%

40%

06/17/2008

44%

43%

05/14/2008

45%

44%

04/08/2008

47%

40%

03/13/2008

46%

40%

02/19/2008

42%

41%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Ohio

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

36%

40%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

10%

Somewhat Unfavorable

19%

11%

Very Unfavorable

20%

37%

Not Sure

3%

3%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.