If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

 

McCain Back on Top in Ohio

As Yogi Berra would say, it’s déjà vu all over again.

John McCain now has a two-point lead on Barack Obama in Ohio, 49% to 47%, in the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state. A week ago Obama was ahead by two points, his first lead in Ohio since tracking of the race began in February.

The current poll finds McCain with his highest level of support since mid-September. But it’s hard to classify Ohio as anything but a pure toss-up. For four straight weeks, the two candidates have been within two points of each other or closer. During that time, neither man has topped 49% support or fallen below 47%. If the four polls are averaged together, Obama and McCain are within a half-point of each other.

In the new poll, one percent (1%) support independent candidate Ralph Nader and two percent (2%) are undecided.

Ohio, with its 20 Electoral College votes, is a classic swing state. George W. Bush carried it in both 2000 and 2004, but Democrat Bill Clinton won Ohio in the two previous presidential elections.

Both men and women in Ohio are now fairly evenly divided between the two candidates. Obama earns 67% of the vote from non-whites, while McCain has 53% of the white vote.

McCain has the support of 87% of Ohio Republicans and 13% of Democrats. Eighty-four percent (84%) of Democrats and 10% of GOP voters back Obama. Unaffiliated voters favor McCain by four points. Last week at this time, the Democrat had a seven-point edge among unaffiliateds.

In that earlier survey, 77% of voters said they were certain of whom they will vote for, while 23% said there was still a chance they might change their minds. Now 82% say they are certain of their vote.

Of those who’ve made up their minds, 86% support McCain, 84% Obama. Of the 18% who still may change, 14% support McCain at this point, while 16% prefer Obama.

(Want a free daily e-mail update ? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

McCain has been trailing Obama in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll in recent weeks.

Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a % chance of winning Ohio this November. Ohio is currently considered a “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings.

McCain is viewed favorably by 58% and unfavorably by 42%. Obama has 55% favorables and 44% unfavorables. Favorables for both candidates have risen slightly.

Ohio voters trust McCain more than Obama 48% to 44%, and nearly half (48%) say the economy is the most important issue in the campaign. National security, a distant second, is rated most important by 18%.

On the economy, voters trust Obama slightly more than McCain, 48% to 46%. But McCain has a 52% to 43% edge in terms of voter trust on national security.

Voters are evenly divided on their comfort level with either candidate as president. But 39% say they would be not at all comfortable with Obama in the White House, compared to 32% who feel that way about McCain.

While 67% say McCain has the right experience to be president, just 40% believe that of Obama. Fifty-one percent (51%) say the Democrat is too inexperienced for the job versus 22% who say that of the Republican.

But 40% say only Obama can bring real change to Washington, while just 29% believe that of McCain. Sixteen percent (16%) say both can, and 12% say neither is capable of bringing necessary change.

Forty-eight percent (48%) say they would ask John McCain for advice if they were faced with the toughest decision of their lives, but nearly as many (45%) say they would ask Obama.

Eighty-one percent (81%) of Ohio voters say they are extremely interested in the presidential election. Another 10% describe themselves as very interested. Only one percent (1%) say they’re not interested at all.

In addition to Ohio, Fox News and Rasmussen Reports are releasing new polling on the presidential race from Colorado, North Carolina, Florida and Missouri today. See an overview of all five state polls and the latest Electoral College projections. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary).

Rasmussen Reports today also released new data on the presidential race from Virginia.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

Ohio Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

49%

48%

45%

Obama (D)

49%

48%

48%

This telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 19, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Ohio Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

49%

49%

10/26/2008

45%

49%

10/19/2008

49%

47%

10/14/2008

49%

49%

10/12/2008

47%

49%

10/05/2008

48%

47%

09/28/2008

48%

47%

09/24/2008

47%

46%

09/21/2008

50%

46%

09/14/2008

48%

45%

09/08/2008

51%

44%

08/18/2008

45%

41%

08/21/2008

46%

40%

06/17/2008

44%

43%

05/14/2008

45%

44%

04/08/2008

47%

40%

03/13/2008

46%

40%

02/19/2008

42%

41%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Ohio

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

36%

40%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

10%

Somewhat Unfavorable

19%

11%

Very Unfavorable

20%

37%

Not Sure

3%

3%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.