It’s all tied in North Carolina.
The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 48% of Tar Heel voters prefer Barack Obama while an identical number favor John McCain. One percent (1%) say they’ll vote for Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.
Obama had held a one-point edge in polling conducted last week and a three-point edge two weeks ago.
McCain was ahead in North Carolina before the problems on Wall Street became visible to Americans everywhere. Not surprisingly, the numbers in North Carolina reflect national trends. McCain was slightly ahead before Lehman Brothers collapsed in mid-September and fell behind shortly thereafter. For the past two-and-a-half weeks, Obama has maintained a modest but steady lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and in the Electoral College.
Nationally, Obama is now performing eight or nine points better than John Kerry. In North Carolina, the current poll finds Obama doing 12 points better than Kerry did four years ago.
North Carolina was last carried by a Democratic presidential candidate in 1976, but the fact that McCain was campaigning there today is indicative of GOP worries that the state is at risk.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of North Carolina voters say they trust McCain more than Obama while 43% have the opposite view.
However, 46% say they would be extremely or very comfortable with Obama as President. Just 43% say the same about McCain.
McCain leads 61% to 37% among Evangelical Christians. He also leads by eight percentage points among other Protestant voters while Catholics are evenly divided. Obama leads 67% to 29% among all other voters statewide. The Democrat leads by seven among women but trails by 11 among men (see full demographic crosstabs).
During Election 2004, President Bush won 56% of the North Carolina vote. Today, just 31% say he is doing a good or an excellent job. Fifty percent (50%) rate the president’s job performance as poor.
New polling on the presidential race is also being released today from Virginia, Ohio,Florida and Missouri. See an overview of all five state polls and the latest Electoral College projections. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary).
See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.
This telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on October 12, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
|
North Carolina Trends: McCain vs. Obama |
||
|---|---|---|
|
Date |
McCain |
Obama |
|
11/02/2008 |
50% |
49% |
|
48% |
50% |
|
|
49% |
48% |
|
|
50% |
48% |
|
|
48% |
51% |
|
|
48% |
48% |
|
|
48% |
49% |
|
|
47% |
50% |
|
|
47% |
49% |
|
|
50% |
47% |
|
|
46% |
42% |
|
|
45% |
42% |
|
|
45% |
43% |
|
|
48% |
45% |
|
|
47% |
47% |
|
|
51% |
42% |
|
|
Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in North Carolina |
||
|---|---|---|
|
McCain |
Obama |
|
|
Very Favorable |
37% |
45% |
|
Somewhat Favorable |
18% |
8% |
|
Somewhat Unfavorable |
18% |
12% |
|
Very Unfavorable |
25% |
34% |
|
Not Sure |
1% |
2% |
|
Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary |
|
|---|---|
|
160 |
|
|
260 |
|
|
118 |
|
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
