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Obama Ahead Again in North Carolina

North Carolina was supposed to be safely Republican again this year, but someone forgot to tell the voters there.

Barack Obama is back out front by two points in the Tar Heel State after trailing by one in a survey released on Monday. Obama is now ahead of John McCain 50% to 48%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state. One percent (1%) support some other candidate, and one percent (1%) are undecided.

A week ago, McCain led by two points. On October 19, Obama was ahead by three. This is only the third time Obama has made it to or exceeded 50% all year, and he’s done it twice this month. McCain also has been in this territory only three times in this year’s polling, last week for the first time since mid-September.

No Democratic presidential candidate has carried North Carolina since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Maintaining that Republican lock on the state is essential to McCain’s bid for the White House.Democrat Kay Hagan now holds a six-point lead over incumbent Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina.

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McCain is supported by 93% of Republicans while Obama gets the vote from 87% of Democrats.McCain has a nine-point lead among unaffiliated voters.

The Republican leads by 11 points among men, while Obama has a 12-point advantage among women.Ninety-eight percent (98%) of African-American voters back Obama. Whites support McCain over the Democrat 63% to 35%.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives McCain a % chance of winning North Carolina’s 15 Electoral College votes on Election Day. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join, so add your voice to the collective wisdom. The Tar Heel state is rated a “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of North Carolina voters regard McCain favorably and 43% unfavorably. This is a shift of three from the positive to the negative column from the survey earlier this week. Obama is viewed favorably by 53%, unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s numbers are largely the same.

Forty-eight percent (48%) say the economy is the number one issue in the election, while 20% rate national security as most important.

North Carolina voters are closely divided on which candidate they trust more to deal with the economy, giving Obama a two-point edge. Among voters who list the economy as the most important issue this year, however, Obama has a 69% to 31% lead over McCain.

Voters give McCain a six-point lead over Obama in terms of trust on national security issues. But among those who say national security is the primary electoral issue, McCain leads Obama 79% to 17%.

President Bush’s job performance is rated good or excellent by 32% and poor by 52%. The partisan divide is dramatic: Only 11% of GOP voters say Bush is doing a poor job compared to 85% of Democrats.

Battleground state polls released Monday showed Obama leading in Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia. With these latest results, Rasmussen Reports has moved Florida from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic.”

In Missouri and North Carolina, the race remains a toss-up while McCain leads by five in his home state of Arizona. Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-160. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 313-160.

Other new polls show McCain ahead in Alaska, Arkansas, Indiana, Montana and Mississippi while Obama has the advantage in New Mexico, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

 

Recent statewide presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Washington. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

North Carolina Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

50%

49%

47%

Obama (D)

49%

49%

47%

This telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on October 29, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.


See Methodology


North Carolina Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

50%

49%

10/29/2008

48%

50%

10/26/2008

49%

48%

10/23/2008

50%

48%

10/19/2008

48%

51%

10/12/2008

48%

48%

10/09/2008

48%

49%

09/30/2008

47%

50%

09/23/2008

47%

49%

09/18/2008

50%

47%

08/13/2008

46%

42%

07/15/2008

45%

42%

06/10/2008

45%

43%

05/08/2008

48%

45%

04/10/2008

47%

47%

03/20/2008

51%

42%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in North Carolina

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

37%

45%

Somewhat Favorable

18%

8%

Somewhat Unfavorable

18%

12%

Very Unfavorable

25%

34%

Not Sure

1%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205

About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.