Thursday, July 17, 2008

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John McCain continues to struggle in the traditionally Republican state of North Carolina.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Tar Heel State finds John McCain earning 45% of the vote while Barack Obama attracts 43% support. McCain led by three points a month ago and the two candidates were tied in April. It’s interesting to note that support for both candidates has declined from the previous couple of polls. Six percent (6%) now say they will vote for a third party option and 5% are undecided.

For McCain’s camp, the silver lining may be that he is still ahead at all at a time when Barack Obama is enjoying a solid bounce nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. That bounce has given the Democrat his largest lead of the year in Iowa, Washington, and Michigan.

In North Carolina, McCain is supported by 88% of Republicans. Obama wins the vote from 76% of Democrats and holds a three-point edge among unaffiliated voters. McCain leads among voters over 50 while Obama has the advantage among those who have not yet reached the half-century mark.

Rasmussen Markets shows that Republicans are currently given a % chance of winning North Carolina’s fifteen Electoral College Votes this fall. George W. Bush won the state by twelve points in 2004 and by thirteen points four years earlier. Immediately prior to release of this poll, North Carolina was rated as “Likely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

McCain is viewed favorably by 55% of the state’s voters while Obama is viewed favorably by 49%. Compared to a month ago, McCain’s rating is up two points while Obama’s numbers are down two. Compared to two months ago, McCain’s ratings have slipped four points and Obama’s are down five.

Opinions about Obama are much stronger—33% have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democratic nominee while 34% have a Very Unfavorable opinion. That’s a net decline of eight points for Obama since last month. For McCain, the comparable numbers are 18% Very Favorable and 17% Very Unfavorable, a net improvement of six.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of North Carolina voters say it’s more important to get the troops home from Iraq than it is to win the War. Forty percent (40%) take the opposite view and say victory is more important. These figures are similar to the national average.

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Tar Heel voters say that the federal government itself has become a special interest group. Only 13% disagree. Just 15% believe the government today represents the will of the American people. Those figures too are similar to the national average.

The state’s Senate race is also quite competitive as Elizabeth Dole is facing a strong challenge from Kay Hagan. The Governor’s race is also very close.

George W. Bush won 56% of the vote in North Carolina during Election 2004. Today, less than four years later, just 33% say the President is doing a good or an excellent job. Fifty percent (50%) say he is doing a poor job.

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