North Carolina, for years a safely Republican state, has been seesawing up and down between the two presidential candidates in recent weeks. John McCain now leads Barack Obama by two points, 50% to 48%, in the Tar Heel State, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey.

In a survey released on Monday, Obama was ahead by three, 51% to 48%. Last week, the race was tied.

But this is the first time the Republican has been ahead since the middle of September. Prior to that he had been leading Obama for months.

Just one percent (1%) now say they are undecided, with another one percent (1%) backing an unspecified third-party candidate.

No Democrat has won North Carolina in a presidential election since Jimmy Carter in 1976, and holding the state is critical to any chance McCain has of election.

A plurality of North Carolina voters (48%) in the new poll say McCain is the candidate most likely to carry the state, but 40% expect the Democrat to win North Carolina.

Nationally, Obama has been gaining ground steadily in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll ever since the Wall Street debacle began to dominate the news. The Democratic hopeful also has a solid lead in the Electoral College projections.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives McCain a % chance of winning North Carolina’s 15 Electoral College votes on Election Day. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join, so add your voice to the collective wisdom.

The latest numbers from North Carolina’s hotly contested gubernatorial contest will be released at 3 pm Eastern today.

McCain has the support of 89% of North Carolina Republicans while Obama is supported by 87% of Democrats. McCain has a 17-point edge among unaffiliated voters.

Men support McCain by 20 points over Obama, but the Democrat has a 12-point lead among women.

Ninety-eight percent (98%) of African-American voters support Obama, while 64% of whites back McCain. Democrats outnumber Republicans five-to-one among new voters who registered this year in North Carolina, and the Obama campaign is counting on a large black voter turnout to help move the state into its column.

According to an analysis by ABC News released today, however, a Democrat needs to win 40% of the white vote to carry North Carolina.

McCain is viewed favorably by 57% and unfavorably by 41% of North Carolina voters. Fifty-two percent (52%) have a favorable opinion of Obama and 47% see him unfavorably.

Forty-three percent (43%) say the economy is the most important issue in the election, and North Carolina voters trust McCain more than Obama on the economy, 51% to 46%. Forty-two percent (42%) agree with Obama that when the federal government spreads wealth around, it’s good for everybody, but 44% disagree.

Twenty-one percent (21%) believe national security is the number one issue in the election. McCain has a 10-point lead on Obama in voter trust on this issue.

Half (50%) believe elections are fair to voters, although 31% disagree. Still, 57% are Very Confident their votes will be counted, and another 31% are somewhat confident of that fact. Just two percent (2%) are not at all confident their vote will be counted.

Forty-nine percent (49%) say it is more likely that people will vote illegally on Election Day than that legal voters will be denied the chance to do so. Twenty-nine percent believe the opposite. Eighty-one percent (81%) say voters should be required to show photo identification before casting their ballots, and only 14% disagree.

New presidential polling data also has been released this week from Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington and West Virginia. See an overview of all state polls and the latest Electoral College projections. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House. (see 50-State Summary).

New numbers from Iowa and New Hampshire will be released at 5 pm Eastern today.

President Bush’s job performance is rated good or excellent by 35% of North Carolina voters, but 46% say he is doing a poor job.

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