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New York: Obama Holds onto Dominant Lead

Barack Obama doesn't have a two-to-one margin in New York anymore, but he still leads John McCain by 20 points, 52% to 32%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Empire State voters. When “leaners” are included, the Democrat has a 55% to 36% lead.

In late June, Obama led his Republican opponent 60% to 29%.

Rasmussen Markets shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning the Empire State’s thirty-three Electoral College Votes this fall. John Kerry won the state for the Democrats in 2004 by 18 points. Four years earlier, Al Gore won the state by 25 percentage points. Immediately prior to release of this poll, New York was rated as “Safely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Obama leads 47% to 36% among men in the Empire State and 56% to 28% among women. He’s also backed by 78% of Democrats and 10% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama has a 45% to 27% advantage over McCain.

The presumptive Democratic nominee’s favorability ratings in New York have decreased somewhat along with his lead in August. He is viewed favorably by 59%, down from 67% in June. Obama is now viewed unfavorably by 39% of voters, up from 30% a month ago. McCain’s numbers have changed little since the last poll. He is now viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 49%.

The survey also found that when it comes to New York’s current financial problems, the majority of voters (60%) are confident that Governor David Paterson has the ability to solve them. Another 36% are not confident in the governor’s abilities. Paterson earns good or excellent ratings from 51% of voters in the state, while 13% say he is doing a poor job.

A plurality of voters (43%) believes a combination of tax increases and cuts in funding of state services and municipalities would help solve the New York’s financial woes.

When it comes to the War on Terror, 46% of New York voters say the United States and its allies are winning. That number is slightly lower than the national average. Most New Yorkers (66%) agree with Obama that Iraq is not the “central” front of the war, and 40% give that title to Afghanistan. Nearly half (47%) say Afghanistan is a greater threat than Iraq to the U.S.

Voters in New York, as in most states, believe most reporters are biased. Fifty-nine percent (59%) believe that most reporters covering an election try to help the candidate they want to win, and 40% believe they are trying to help Obama this year.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) also think the media portrays the current economic situation as worse than it really is. But 28% think the media makes the situation sound better than reality, while 25% say it presents an accurate picture.

Just 27% of voters in New York give President George W. Bush good or excellent ratings, while 63% give the president poor marks.

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The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

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New York Safe Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts .

In Trade

McCain (R)

37%

37%

35%

Obama (D)

57%

55%

59%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 4, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


New York Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/14/2008

37%

57%

09/15/2008

42%

55%

08/04/2008

32%

52%

06/30/2008

29%

60%

05/28/2008

33%

52%

04/29/2008

35%

52%

03/11/2008

38%

51%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in New York

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

22%

39%

Somewhat Favorable

27%

24%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

15%

Very Unfavorable

23%

19%

Not Sure

5%

3%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.