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Obama Takes Double-Digit Lead in New Mexico

Barack Obama has opened his largest lead of the year over John McCain in New Mexico, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

Obama attracts 55% of the vote while McCain earns 42%. That’s a sizable improvement for the Democrat who led two weeks ago by a 49% to 44% margin.

Forty-nine percent (49%) believe Obama has run a generally positive campaign. Just 14% say the same of McCain. Thirty-five percent (35%) say this year’s campaign is more negative than most, but 51% say it’s about the same.

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Voters in New Mexico, like voters across the nation, are generally unhappy with the bailout plan passed by Congress. Just 22% agree with the plan and 54% disagree with it. Only 36% believe it will help the economy while 26% believe it will hurt and another 23% say it will have no impact.

Forty-six percent (46%) say lower taxes spur economic growth while 31% believe leaving taxes unchanged would be better. At the same time, 52% say higher taxes on those who earn more than $250,000 a year would be good for the economy. That, too, is similar to the national average.

Overall, Obama is viewed favorably by 59% of New Mexico voters, McCain by 54%.

However, 46% of New Mexico voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while just 28% say the same about McCain. Twenty-seven percent (27%) have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Obama and 29% view McCain that negatively.

Polling released today also shows that Democrat Tom Udall leads Republican Steve Pearce by a wide margin in New Mexico’s U.S. Senate race.

McCain and Obama are essentially even among white voters while the Democrat has a 17-point lead among Hispanic voters. Obama leads by 15 among women but trails by eight among men (full demographic crosstabs available for Premium Members).

Nationally, Obama has opened a stable lead over McCain in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and in the Electoral College projections.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Obama currently has an % chance of winning New Mexico’s five Electoral College votes this fall. President Bush won the state by 6,000 votes out of nearly 750,000 cast in Election 2004. With release of this poll, New Mexico moves from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

While President Bush carried New Mexico four years ago, just 27% of voters in the state now say he is doing a good or excellent job.

State polling data has been released this week from Delaware, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.

Currently, Obama has the edge in every state won by John Kerry in 2004. Of the states won by Bush that year, McCain is trailing in four, and five others are considered toss-ups. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 255-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 300-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.

Recent statewide Presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

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See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

New Mexico
Likely Democratic

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

44%

43%

43%

Obama (D)

54%

53%

51%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 13, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


New Mexico Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/28/2008

44%

54%

10/13/2008

42%

55%

10/01/2008

44%

49%

09/08/2008

49%

47%

08/20/2008

41%

47%

07/24/2008

41%

46%

06/19/2008

39%

47%

05/14/2008

41%

50%

04/08/2008

42%

45%

02/18/2008

44%

44%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in New Mexico

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

31%

46%

Somewhat Favorable

18%

11%

Somewhat Unfavorable

18%

9%

Very Unfavorable

32%

33%

Not Sure

1%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.