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New Mexico: Obama 50% McCain 41%

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of New Mexico voters shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%.

A month ago, Obama had a three-point advantage in the state. In February, McCain and Obama were tied. Polling in the state’s U.S. Senate race also provides good news for the Democrats. Nationally, the race between McCain and Obama remains competitive in the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll.

One reason for Obama’s growing lead is that the number of fence-sitting Democrats has declined. A month ago, 14% of Democrats say they would vote for a third-party option or were undecided. That figure has fallen to 9% in the current survey. This may reflect growing party unity resulting from the growing perception that Obama will be the Democratic nominee.

Still, while more New Mexico Democrats are now willing to vote for Obama, 21% still plan to vote for McCain. That’s little changed over the past month.

Obama among voters under 50, the candidates are tied among those in the 50-64 age bracket, and McCain leads among senior citizens in the state.

McCain leads among regular churchgoers while Obama has a 64% to 28% advantage among those who rarely or never attend church.

Rasmussen Markets shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning New Mexico’s Five Electoral College Votes this fall. Expectations for a GOP victory are set at %. George W. Bush won the state by 6,000 votes out of nearly 750,000 in Election 2004. Immediately prior to release of this poll, New Mexico was rated as “Leans Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

In New Mexico, Obama is viewed favorably by 57% of the state’s voters. That’s little changed from 56% a month ago. McCain is viewed favorably by 50%, down seven points over the past month.

Fourteen percent (14%) of New Mexico voters say that the United States is heading in generally the right direction while 81% believe that nation has gotten off on the wrong track. Those figures are similar to the national average.

Forty-one percent (41%) favor a summer gas tax holiday while 49% are opposed.

Just 37% believe the federal government needs more revenue to fund important government programs. That figure matches the national average.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of New Mexico voters are worried that the next President will raise taxes so much that it harms the economy. Just 34% are worried the next President will cut taxes so much that it harms important government programs.

By a 61% to 20% margin, New Mexico voters oppose an increase in the capital gains tax. Nationally, 65% oppose hiking the capital gains tax. Another national survey found that 60% believe tax hikes are bad for the economy.

In New Mexico, 51% of voters own at least $5,000 worth of stocks, bonds, and mutual funds.

While President Bush narrowly won New Mexico four years ago, just 34% of voters in the state now say he is doing a good or excellent job. Fifty-five percent (55%) say he is doing a poor job.

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New Mexico
Likely Democratic

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

44%

43%

43%

Obama (D)

54%

53%

51%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 14, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


New Mexico Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/28/2008

44%

54%

10/13/2008

42%

55%

10/01/2008

44%

49%

09/08/2008

49%

47%

08/20/2008

41%

47%

07/24/2008

41%

46%

06/19/2008

39%

47%

05/14/2008

41%

50%

04/08/2008

42%

45%

02/18/2008

44%

44%

New Mexico Trends: McCain vs. Clinton

Date

McCain

Clinton

05/14/2008

41%

47%

04/08/2008

46%

43%

02/18/2008

50%

38%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in New Mexico

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

31%

46%

Somewhat Favorable

18%

11%

Somewhat Unfavorable

18%

9%

Very Unfavorable

32%

33%

Not Sure

1%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.