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New Mexico: Getting Closer, but Obama Still Leads by Five

In the race for New Mexico’s Electoral College votes, Barack Obama has a five-point advantage over John McCain. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. Last month, Obama enjoyed an eight-point advantage. Two months ago, it was Obama by nine.

When “leaners” are included in the totals, it’s Obama 49%, McCain 43%. Leaners are those who don’t initially express a preference for one of the major candidates. But, when asked a follow-up question, they do. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members.

Both candidates are viewed favorably by 57% of the state’s voters. Obama gets negative reviews from 41%, McCain from 39%. Reflecting a pattern seen across the country, opinions are more strongly held about Obama. In New Mexico, 31% have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democratic hopeful while just 21% say the same about his Republican rival. Both are viewed Very Unfavorably by 24%.

In New Mexico, Obama attracts 70% of the vote from Democrats and has a five-point edge among unaffiliated voters. McCain earns the vote from 82% of Republicans. McCain leads by thirteen among voters over 65 but trails among younger voters.

Rasmussen Markets shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning New Mexico’s Five Electoral College Votes this fall. George W. Bush won the state by 6,000 votes out of nearly 750,000 in Election 2004. Immediately prior to release of this poll, New Mexico was rated as “Leans Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Nationally, the race for the White House remains close between Obama and McCain in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In numbers that are virtually identical to the national average, 49% of New Mexico voters believe most reporters are trying to help Obama win the election. Just 10% believe they are trying to help McCain.

Fifty-four percent (54%) believe that the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror while just 16% believe the terrorists have the edge. Those numbers are also close to the national average. Overall, confidence in the War on Terror is the highest it has been in at least four years.

Thirty-four percent (34%) of New Mexico voters say that economic issues are most important while 30% view national security issues as the highest priority.

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New Mexico Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

44%

43%

43%

Obama (D)

54%

53%

51%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 24, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


New Mexico Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/28/2008

44%

54%

10/13/2008

42%

55%

10/01/2008

44%

49%

09/08/2008

49%

47%

08/20/2008

41%

47%

07/24/2008

41%

46%

06/19/2008

39%

47%

05/14/2008

41%

50%

04/08/2008

42%

45%

02/18/2008

44%

44%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in New Mexico

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

31%

46%

Somewhat Favorable

18%

11%

Somewhat Unfavorable

18%

9%

Very Unfavorable

32%

33%

Not Sure

1%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.