Barack Obama holds a solid lead over John McCain in New Jersey in the first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the state since the Illinois senator clinched the Democratic Party's nomination last week.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of likely voters in the Garden State favor Obama, as opposed to 39% for Mr. McCain, six percent (6%) for a third-party candidate and six percent (6%) undecided.

The results show that Hillary Clinton voters already are moving to Obama's column since the previous Rasmussen Reports survey in late March. At that time the Democratic nomination was still being hotly contested, and McCain held a statistically insignificant lead over each of his two potential rivals.

The new survey -- conducted 24 hours after Obama achieved the number of delegates necessary for the nomination -- found McCain being backed by 83% of Republicans while 78% of Democrats pledged themselves to Obama.

Women, however, are viewed as a key constituency at play in the upcoming election, and here Obama clearly outpolls his GOP rival.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of women voters say they favor Obama, as opposed to 34% for McCain.

Among men, it's much closer: 42% for Obama, 46% for McCain.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an % chance of winning New Jersey this November. Democratic candidate John Kerry carried New Jersey over President Bush -- 53% to 46% -- in Election 2004. Al Gore won the state-- 56% to 41% -- over Bush four years earlier. George H.W. Bush in 1988 was the last Republican presidential candidate to carry New Jersey where no Republcian has won a statewide office since 1997.

New Jersey, with its 15 electoral votes, is currently ranked as "Likely Democratic" in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

In the new survey, Obama and McCain are both viewed favorably among New Jersey voters -- 60% have a positive opinion of Obama while 59% say the same about McCain.

Sixty percent (60%) of New Jersey voters believe it is more important to bring the troops home than to win the war in Iraq. Nationally, 52% hold that view.

If Obama is elected, only 23% of voters believe it is at least somewhat likely that the United States will win the war in Iraq, as opposed to 50% for a McCain presidency.

By contrast, 64% of Garden State voters believe it is at least somewhat likely that Obama will bring the troops home in his first term. Only 37% believe that of McCain.

New Jersey voters express skepticism about the federal governmet in line with national averages. Sixty-eight percent (68%) say government has become a special interest group, while 14% disagree. Only 12% believe the government represents the will of the people, but 79% say otherwise.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of New Jersey voters believe elections are fair to voters; 33% do not. Still, 79% are at least somewhat confident that their votes will be accurately counted.

Just 23% of New Jersey voters say President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job. Fifty-two percent (52%) say he's doing a poor job.

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