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Obama’s Lead Cut to Four in New Hampshire

The presidential race in New Hampshire has grown closer, with Barack Obama now leading John McCain 50% to 46%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state.

At the beginning of the month, the Democrat held a ten point lead over his opponent, which shifted New Hampshire from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator. In the eight polls prior to October, Obama has held the lead in five, McCain in three.

Voters in New Hampshire are divided on who they trust more on the top issue of the economy, with Obama holding the edge, 46% to 45%. While 43% agree with Obama’s idea that spreading the wealth around would be good for everybody, 44% disagree.

Voters trust McCain more on national security and the War on Terror by a 53% to 43% margin.

Regardless of who they want to win, 46% of voters in New Hampshire think Obama will win the Granite State, while 39% say the winner will be McCain.

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Obama now leads 51% to 42% among unaffiliated voters in New Hampshire. He was up 55% to 37% lead three weeks ago. McCain leads by ten among men, while women favor Obama by nineteen (see full demographic crosstabs).

Both candidates are viewed unfavorably by 43% of voters in New Hampshire. McCain is viewed favorably by 56%, Obama by 55%.

Not even half of New Hampshire voters (46%) say elections are generally fair to voters, but most are confident their vote will be counted and the right candidate declared the winner.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Obama is currently given a % chance of winning New Hampshire's four Electoral College votes this year. At the time this poll was released, New Hampshire is rated as “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

New presidential polling data also has been released this week from Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington and West Virginia. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary).

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

 

New Hampshire
Leans Democratic

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

44%

46%

44%

Obama (D)

51%

50%

49%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on October 23, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


New Hampshire Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/30/2008

44%

51%

10/23/2008

46%

50%

10/01/2008

43%

53%

09/23/2008

49%

47%

08/19/2008

42%

43%

07/23/2008

41%

47%

06/18/2008

39%

50%

05/21/2008

43%

48%

04/30/2008

51%

41%

03/16/2008

46%

43%

02/11/2008

36%

49%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in New Hampshire

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

31%

42%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

8%

Very Unfavorable

20%

33%

Not Sure

3%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.