If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

 

New Hampshire: Obama's Big Lead Now Down To A Virtual Tie

The presidential race in New Hampshire is now a toss-up. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds that Barack Obama's once-double-digit lead over John McCain is down to a statistically insignificant one-point lead, 43% to 42%.

When “leaners” are factored in, Obama is ahead 47% to 46%. Full demographic crosstabs are available for Premium Members. Time is running out to save on Premium Memberships. Sign up now and save. Learn More.

The Democrat’s support has steadily decreased in the Granite State since he clinched the nomination in early June. Obama fell from an 11-percentage point lead in mid-June to a six-point lead in July. The latest numbers mark the closest the race has been so far this year.

The latest numbers show support growing for McCain from those in his party. He now earns the vote from 87% of GOP voters, up from 78% a month ago. Though Obama still has a 42% to 34% lead among unaffiliated voters, support for the Democrat is down from 50% last month. He also has a 46% to 38% lead among women. Among men in New Hampshire, McCain has a 46% to 40% edge.

While Obama has a solid lead among younger voters, the race is close among voters between the ages of 30 and 64. McCain has a dominant lead among voters age 65 and older.

Nationally, the race remains close in the Daily Presidential Tracking poll.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Obama is currently given a % chance of winning New Hampshire's four Electoral College votes this year. It is widely considered a swing state, primarily because it is one of the few states to switch sides between Election 2000 and Election 2004. New Hampshire has voted for the Democrat in three out of the last four presidential elections, though John Kerry won by just a single point in 2004. The state is classified as “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Obama is viewed favorably by 55%, while McCain is viewed favorably by 57%. The Democrat is viewed very favorably by 28% and very unfavorably by 29%. Meanwhile, 23% have a very favorable opinion of McCain, while 16% have a very unfavorable view of the GOP candidate.

The issue of energy has been at the front of many voters’ minds this election season. In New Hampshire, 60% of voters think finding new energy sources is more important than reducing the amount of energy Americans now consume. Thirty-four percent (34%) take the opposite view. While 87% of voters believe finding new sources is an urgent national need, 75% also feel that way about reducing energy consumption.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters in New Hampshire think media bias is a bigger problem than large campaign contributions in politics today. Thirty-nine percent (39%) think campaign contributions are the bigger problem. Again, those figures also reflect the views of voters nationwide. The majority of voters (64%) say most politicians will break the rules in order to help people who contribute money to their campaigns. While 44% of voters say McCain is too influenced by contributors and lobbyists, 36% believe that of Obama.

President George W. Bush earns good or excellent ratings from just 26% of New Hampshire voters, while 52% give him poor reviews.

In New Hampshire’s race for the Senate, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen has expanded her lead over incumbent John Sununu.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

New Hampshire Leans Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

44%

46%

44%

Obama (D)

51%

50%

49%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on August 18, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


New Hampshire Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/30/2008

44%

51%

10/23/2008

46%

50%

10/01/2008

43%

53%

09/23/2008

49%

47%

08/19/2008

42%

43%

07/23/2008

41%

47%

06/18/2008

39%

50%

05/21/2008

43%

48%

04/30/2008

51%

41%

03/16/2008

46%

43%

02/11/2008

36%

49%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in New Hampshire

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

31%

42%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

8%

Very Unfavorable

20%

33%

Not Sure

3%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.