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New Hampshire: Obama Opens Ten Point Lead

The last week and-a-half has brought plenty of discouraging news from around the nation for John McCain’s Presidential campaign and the latest polling from New Hampshire isn’t going to change that pattern. Barack Obama now enjoys a ten point lead in the Granite State.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Hampshire Obama attracting 53% of the vote while McCain earns 43%. This is the first time Obama has held a significant lead in the state since July and the first time he’s held a double digit lead since June. Polls in August and September showed the race to be a toss-up. In fact, less than two weeks ago, McCain was up by two points, 49% to 47%.

Obama is now viewed favorably by 60% of New Hampshire voters, McCain by 57%. Those figures reflect a six-point improvement for Obama and a three-point decline for McCain compared to the late September survey.

As for the running mates, Delaware Senator Joe Biden is viewed favorably by 54% while 47% say the same about Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

The economy remains the top issue of Election 2008 in New Hampshire and 50% of the state’s voters trust Obama more than McCain on that topic. Forty-one percent (41%) have the opposite view and trust McCain.

Nine percent (9%) of Granite State voters rate the nation’s economy as good or excellent while 59% describe it as poor. Just 3% say the economy is getting better while 84% say it is getting worse.

Obama now leads by twenty-one percentage points among women in New Hampshire but trails by two among men. The Democrat leads by seven among investors and by eighteen among non-investors (see full demographic crosstabs).

Nationally, Obama has opened a modest but stable lead in the Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking poll.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Obama is currently given a % chance of winning New Hampshire's four Electoral College votes this year. With release of this poll, New Hampshire moves from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Just 23% of New Hampshire voters say that George W. Bush is doing a good or excellent job as President.

Yesterday, Rasmussen Reports released new poll results for North Carolina, New Mexico, Montana, Kentucky and Nebraska.

Earlier, results were released from Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kansas, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.

Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

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New Hampshire Leans Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

44%

46%

44%

Obama (D)

51%

50%

49%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on October 1, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


New Hampshire Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/30/2008

44%

51%

10/23/2008

46%

50%

10/01/2008

43%

53%

09/23/2008

49%

47%

08/19/2008

42%

43%

07/23/2008

41%

47%

06/18/2008

39%

50%

05/21/2008

43%

48%

04/30/2008

51%

41%

03/16/2008

46%

43%

02/11/2008

36%

49%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in New Hampshire

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

31%

42%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

8%

Very Unfavorable

20%

33%

Not Sure

3%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.