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New Hampshire: Obama Holds Modest Lead

The race for New Hampshire’s Electoral College votes remains interesting and competitive. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Granite State shows Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 45%.

As is the case nationwide, half (50%) of New Hampshire voters believe most reporters are trying to help Barack Obama win the election. Just 8% believe they are trying to help McCain while 26% say reporters try to provide unbiased coverage.

Last month, in the first New Hampshire poll conducted since Hillary Clinton’s exit from the race, Obama was up by eleven. However, following a pattern seen in many states, Obama’s bounce from winning the nomination has faded. The current numbers are similar to those from two months ago when the presumptive Democratic nominee had a five-point lead over McCain. Nationally, Obama and McCain remain very competitive in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Obama leads by double digits among women while McCain leads by double digits among men. Obama leads by eleven among voters not affiliated with either major political party. In New Hampshire, a plurality of voters fall into this category.

McCain is viewed favorably by 63% of the state’s voters, up from 59% a month ago and from 55% the month before.

Obama is viewed favorably by 57%, down four points over the past month but little changed from two months ago.

Among voters who consider economic issues the most important, Obama leads by twenty-seven percentage points. Among those who believe national security issues are the highest priority, McCain leads 70% to 28%. The good news for Obama is that 44% consider economic issues most important. Only 26% say the same about national security issues. Those figures are similar to the national average and reflect quite a turnaround from Election 2004.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Obama is currently given a % chance of winning New Hampshire this year. It is widely considered a swing state, mainly because it is one of just a few states to switch sides between Election 2000 and Election 2004. New Hampshire has voted for the Democrat in three out of the last four Presidential elections, though John Kerry won by just a single point. The state is classified as “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

In New Hampshire, 52% of voters say that reducing the price of gas and oil is more important than protecting the environment. Thirty-seven percent (37%) disagree and say protecting the environment is more important.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) say the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror while just 15% say the terrorists are winning. Nationally—for the first time since 2004—a majority of voters believe the U.S. and its allies are winning that war. Still, a plurality of voters in New Hampshire tend to agree with Barack Obama and say that Afghanistan is more of a threat to the United States than Iraq at this point. That, too, reflects the national mood.

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New Hampshire
Leans Democratic

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

44%

46%

44%

Obama (D)

51%

50%

49%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 23, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


New Hampshire Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/30/2008

44%

51%

10/23/2008

46%

50%

10/01/2008

43%

53%

09/23/2008

49%

47%

08/19/2008

42%

43%

07/23/2008

41%

47%

06/18/2008

39%

50%

05/21/2008

43%

48%

04/30/2008

51%

41%

03/16/2008

46%

43%

02/11/2008

36%

49%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in New Hampshire

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

31%

42%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

8%

Very Unfavorable

20%

33%

Not Sure

3%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.