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New Hampshire: Boost from Women Strengthens Obama Lead in the Granite State

Barack Obama has more than doubled his lead over John McCain in the first poll conducted in New Hampshire since Hillary Clinton’s exit from the race. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Granite State found Obama ahead 50% to 39%.

Last month, the Democrat had just a five-point lead over McCain. That survey also showed Clinton with a greater lead over the GOP nominee of 51% to 41%.

Obama’s insignificant two-point lead among women voters last month has bounced to a sixteen-point lead this month. His lead among male voters is nearly the same; he now leads McCain by seven percentage points among men, little changed from eight points last month.

Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, Obama leads McCain 50% to 35%. Those percentages are nearly identical to those from the last survey. Obama is backed by 81% of Democrats and 18% of Republicans in New Hampshire. McCain’s support comes from 75% of Republican voters and 12% of Democratic voters.

Obama’s favorability ratings in New Hampshire have also improved over the past month. The Democrat is viewed favorably by 61%, up from 56% in May. He is viewed unfavorably by 38%, down from 42% last month. McCain’s numbers are 59% favorable, 44% unfavorable. Those numbers are a bit stronger than last month’s totals of 55% favorable, 44% unfavorable.

If Mitt Romney was selected as McCain’s Vice Presidential nominee, 32% of New Hampshire voters would be more likely to vote for McCain, while 37% would be less likely to vote for him. Nearly half (49%) believe that it is at least somewhat likely for Romney to be on the ticket. Twenty-nine percent (29%) find that to be unlikely.

Thirty-four percent (34%) of New Hampshire voters would be more likely to vote for Barack Obama is Hillary Clinton ran as his VP nominee, while the same number would be less likely to vote for the Democratic ticket. Fewer voters (31%) find it likely Clinton will be chosen by Obama than those who find it unlikely (55%).

Over half of New Hampshire voters (56%) think it is more important to bring the troops home from Iraq than winning the war. Just 36% think the opposite. Those percentages are similar to those found nationwide.

Two-thirds of New Hampshire voters (64%) believe the government has become a special interest group, while 17% disagree. Those results are nearly the same as those found in a separate national poll. Just 13% of New Hampshire voters believe the government represents the will of the people, while 71% believe the opposite is true.

When it comes to the issue of oil prices, 66% of New Hampshire voters think drilling should be allowed in offshore oil wells, while 27% think it should not be allowed. Those numbers are similar to national numbers released yesterday. Half (48%) oppose nationalization, while just 30% support the concept. Forty-percent (40%) of New Hampshire voters think free trade is good for the economy, while 30% believe it to be bad.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Obama is currently given a % chance of winning New Hampshire this year. It is widely considered a swing state, mainly because it is one of just a few states to switch sides between Election 2000 and Election 2004. New Hampshire has voted for the Democrat in three out of the last four Presidential elections, though John Kerry won by just a single point. The state is classified as “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

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New Hampshire
Leans Democratic

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

44%

46%

44%

Obama (D)

51%

50%

49%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on June 18, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


New Hampshire Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/30/2008

44%

51%

10/23/2008

46%

50%

10/01/2008

43%

53%

09/23/2008

49%

47%

08/19/2008

42%

43%

07/23/2008

41%

47%

06/18/2008

39%

50%

05/21/2008

43%

48%

04/30/2008

51%

41%

03/16/2008

46%

43%

02/11/2008

36%

49%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in New Hampshire

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

31%

42%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

8%

Very Unfavorable

20%

33%

Not Sure

3%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.