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Obama Takes Lead in Nevada

For the first time since July, Barack Obama has moved ahead of John McCain in Nevada.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Obama attracting 51% of the vote while McCain earns 47%. Last month, McCain had a three-point advantage in this key southwestern state.

McCain is viewed favorably by 54% of the state’s voters, Obama by 53%.

As for their running mates, Delaware Senator Joseph Biden is viewed favorably by 52%, while 50% say the same about Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

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The economy is the top issue for Election 2008 and just eight percent (8%) of Nevada voters rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent. Sixty-two percent (62%) say the economy is in poor shape. Only six percent (6%) believe it is getting better while 82% say economic conditions are getting worse.

Voters in Nevada are fairly evenly divided as to which candidate they trust most when it comes to the economy. Obama now leads by nine points among women but trails by two among men. Crosstabs with demographic breakdowns are available for Premium Members.

Nationally, Obama has recently opened a modest but stable lead over McCain in both the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and the Electoral College projections.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives McCain a % chance of winning Nevada this November. Nevada has cast its five Electoral College votes for the winning candidate in seven straight presidential elections. The last four have been very competitive with nobody carrying the state by more than four percent of the popular vote. As the poll is released, Nevada is considered a “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

While most Nevada voters cast a ballot for George W. Bush four years ago, just 28% now say he is doing a good or an excellent job. Fifty-four percent (54%) say he is doing a poor job.

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Nevada Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

46%

46%

46%

Obama (D)

50%

50%

48%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 2, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Nevada Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/27/2008

46%

50%

10/16/2008

45%

50%

10/02/2008

47%

51%

09/11/2008

49%

46%

08/11/2008

45%

42%

07/16/2008

40%

42%

06/18/2008

45%

42%

05/20/2008

46%

40%

04/21/2008

48%

43%

03/19/2008

41%

45%

02/12/2008

38%

50%


Favorable Ratings For Presidential Candidates in Nevada

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

30%

41%

Somewhat Favorable

23%

10%

Somewhat Unfavorable

20%

11%

Very Unfavorable

25%

37%

Not Sure

2%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.