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Nevada: Obama By Five

In Nevada, Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain, the economic rescue plan is wildly unpopular, and voters are evenly divided on whether you can win the White House without criticizing your opponent.

The Democratic candidate now leads by five percentage points, 50% to 45%. At the beginning of October, Obama was ahead by four points, his first lead in the state since July.

Obama is viewed favorably by 53% of the state’s voters, McCain by 52%. Obama’s ratings are unchanged from the previous survey while McCain's are down two points.

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Just 19% agree with the economic rescue plan passed by Congress while 59% take the opposite view. Only 26% believe it will help the economy, 27% say it will hurt, and 29% say the $700 billion plan will have no impact.

Twelve percent (12%) say this year’s election is more positive than most, 37% say it’s more negative, and 50% say it’s about the same as most recent elections. Forty-two percent (42%) say it’s possible to win without criticizing your opponent, but 44% disagree.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) say that the tone of Obama’s campaign has been generally positive while 31% say negative.

For the McCain campaign, the numbers are 14% positive and 51% negative.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives McCain a % chance of winning Nevada this November. Nevada has cast its five Electoral College votes for the winning candidate in seven straight presidential elections. The last four have been very competitive with nobody carrying the state by more than four percent of the popular vote. As the poll is released, Nevada is considered a “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Nationally, Obama has opened a stable lead over McCain in both the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and the Electoral College projections.

While most Nevada voters cast a ballot for President Bush four years ago, just 25% now say he is doing a good or an excellent job. Fifty-three percent (53%) say he is doing a poor job.

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Nevada Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

46%

46%

46%

Obama (D)

50%

50%

48%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 16, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Nevada Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/27/2008

46%

50%

10/16/2008

45%

50%

10/02/2008

47%

51%

09/11/2008

49%

46%

08/11/2008

45%

42%

07/16/2008

40%

42%

06/18/2008

45%

42%

05/20/2008

46%

40%

04/21/2008

48%

43%

03/19/2008

41%

45%

02/12/2008

38%

50%


Favorable Ratings For Presidential Candidates in Nevada

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

30%

41%

Somewhat Favorable

23%

10%

Somewhat Unfavorable

20%

11%

Very Unfavorable

25%

37%

Not Sure

2%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.