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McCain Takes Slight Lead Again in Nevada

The race for Nevada’s Electoral College votes remains close, but for the fourth time in the last five months John McCain has a slight advantage. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows McCain attracting 45% of the vote while Obama earns 42%.

This is the third straight month to find Obama’s support at the 42% level. Two months ago, McCain was at 45%, but his support slipped to 40% in July.

When “leaners” are included in the current Nevada totals, McCain is on top 48% to 45%.

Crosstabs with more detailed results and demographic breakdowns are available for Premium Members.Nevada is one of three southwestern states targeted by the Obama campaign. Like New Mexico and Colorado, it went narrowly for President Bush four years ago.

McCain is now viewed favorably by 58% of voters in Nevada, down two points from a month ago.

Obama currently gets positive reviews from 47% of the state’s voters, down five points from July.

As always in this election season, opinions about Obama are more firmly established. He is viewed Very Favorably by 30% and Very Unfavorably by 35%. For McCain, the numbers are 20% Very Favorable and 21% Very Unfavorable.

McCain is now supported by 85% of Republicans, up nine percentage points from a month ago. Obama currently attracts 79% support from Democrats, unchanged over the past month. Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.

Consistent with the views of voters across the nation, 55% of Nevada voters believe most reporters are trying to help Barack Obama win the election. Just 9% believe they are trying to help McCain while 24% say most reporters try to offer unbiased coverage. A recent survey found that most voters believe media bias is a bigger problem than big campaign donors.

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especial when the results have a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, McCain leads Obama by a statistically insignificant 43% to 42% margin. A month ago, McCain led by three points in the three-poll average.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives McCain a % chance of winning Nevada this November. Nevada has cast its five Electoral College votes for the winning candidate in seven straight presidential elections. The last four have been very competitive with nobody carrying the state by more than four percent of the popular vote. As the poll is released, Nevada is considered a “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Mirroring the national mood, Nevada voters overwhelmingly say it’s more important to find new sources of energy than to reduce the amount of energy that Americans consume. Just 23% say it’s more important to reduce consumption.

Most Nevada voters believe that the United States and its allies are winning the War on Terror. Just 22% believe the terrorists are winning. Nationally, confidence in the War on Terror is at the highest levels in the past four years.

Voters see very stark differences between Obama and McCain on Iraq and energy issues. While most Nevada voters cast a ballot for George W. Bush four years ago, most (52%) now think the president is doing a poor job. Just 35% say he is doing a good or an excellent job.

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Nevada Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

46%

46%

46%

Obama (D)

50%

50%

48%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 11, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Nevada Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/27/2008

46%

50%

10/16/2008

45%

50%

10/02/2008

47%

51%

09/11/2008

49%

46%

08/11/2008

45%

42%

07/16/2008

40%

42%

06/18/2008

45%

42%

05/20/2008

46%

40%

04/21/2008

48%

43%

03/19/2008

41%

45%

02/12/2008

38%

50%


Favorable Ratings For Presidential Candidates in Nevada

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

30%

41%

Somewhat Favorable

23%

10%

Somewhat Unfavorable

20%

11%

Very Unfavorable

25%

37%

Not Sure

2%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.