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Montana: McCain Leads Obama By 8

John McCain’s lead over Barack Obama is back in single digits in Montana.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Treasure State finds McCain leading by eight, 52% to 44%. Last month the GOP hopeful was up by 11 points.

McCain is now viewed favorably by 56% of Montana voters, down four points from a month ago. Obama earns positive reviews from 50% of Montana voters, unchanged since September.

McCain leads by 23 percentage points among men but trails by five among women (see full demographic crosstabs).

As for the running mates, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 56% of Montana voters while 48% say the same of Delaware Senator Joseph Biden.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

The economy is the top issue in Montana as it is throughout the nation. Just 14% believe the economy is in good or excellent shape while 52% rate the nation’s economy as poor. Six percent (6%) of Montana voters say the economy is getting better while 77% say it is getting worse.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of Montana voters say they trust McCain more than Obama on economic issues while 43% hold the opposite view. McCain has a larger advantage on national security issues.

Montana has voted for a Republican candidate in nine of the last 10 presidential elections, but Obama had made clear his intention to compete for the state’s three Electoral College votes. The candidate himself spent the Fourth of July in Butte, Montana, and his campaign ran significant television advertising in the state.

Nationally, Obama has opened a modest but stable lead over McCain in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Today, Rasmussen Reports released new poll results for North Carolina, New Mexico, Montana, Kentucky and Nebraska.

Last night, results were released from Texas, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Other polling has recently been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kansas, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

At the time this poll was released, Montana is rated as “Likely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right corner of this article.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are currently given a % chance of winning Montana this November. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join and share your insights .

President George W. Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 35% of Montana voters, while 48% say he is doing a poor job.

In Montana’s Senate race, Democratic incumbent Max Baucus is cruising towards re-election in November.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

Montana Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

50%

52%

49%

Obama (D)

46%

44%

43%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 1, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Montana Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/29/2008

50%

46%

10/01/2008

52%

44%

09/09/2008

53%

42%

07/29/2008

45%

44%

07/01/2008

43%

48%

04/06/2008

48%

43%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Montana

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

27%

39%

Somewhat Favorable

26%

10%

Somewhat Unfavorable

19%

11%

Very Unfavorable

26%

39%

Not Sure

1%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.