The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Missouri shows John McCain attracting 47% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 42%. A month ago, the candidates were essentially even. That survey was conducted the night that Obama clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination. McCain had the advantage in earlier surveys.
When leaners are included in the current survey, McCain leads Obama 50% to 45%. Leaners are survey participants who initially indicate no preference for either major candidate but indicate that they are leaning towards either McCain or Obama.
Including leaners, McCain is supported by 93% of Missouri Republicans and enjoys a sixteen percentage point lead among unaffiliated voters. Last month, Obama had a slight advantage among the unaffiliateds and this month he is supported by 80% of Democrats.
Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, McCain leads Obama 45% to 42%. Last month’s three-poll average showed McCain up by six.
McCain is currently viewed favorably by 58% of Missouri voters, Obama by 50%. Those figures reflect a modest improvement for both candidates over the past month.
Twenty-eight percent (28%) say McCain is too old to be President and 50% say Obama is too inexperienced. National results for these questions and other key stats for Election 2008 are updated continuously at Obama-McCain By the Numbers.
Missouri is a classic swing state in Presidential Elections that almost always awards its Electoral College Votes to the candidate who wins the White House. George W. Bush won those 11 Electoral Votes four years ago by winning the popular vote 53% to 46%.
Fifty-three percent (53%) of Missouri voters say it’s more important to get the troops home from Iraq than to win the War. Forty percent (40%) disagree and say victory is more important. Voters see the candidate’s positions on Iraq as the biggest difference between McCain and Obama.
Sixty-seven percent (67%) say offshore drilling for oil should be allowed, only 24% disagree. Most Missouri voters (55%) say that move is likely to lower the price of gas and oil.
This survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations Inc.
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This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 7, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
See Methodology.
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Missouri Trends: McCain vs. Obama |
||
|---|---|---|
|
Date |
McCain |
Obama |
|
11/02/2008 |
49% |
49% |
|
47% |
48% |
|
|
44% |
49% |
|
|
46% |
52% |
|
|
47% |
50% |
|
|
47% |
50% |
|
|
51% |
46% |
|
|
48% |
41% |
|
|
47% |
42% |
|
|
42% |
43% |
|
|
47% |
41% |
|
|
53% |
38% |
|
|
42% |
40% |
|
|
Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Missouri |
||
|---|---|---|
|
McCain |
Obama |
|
|
Very Favorable |
35% |
42% |
|
Somewhat Favorable |
21% |
12% |
|
Somewhat Unfavorable |
21% |
11% |
|
Very Unfavorable |
22% |
34% |
|
Not Sure |
2% |
1% |
|
Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary |
|
|---|---|
|
160 |
|
|
260 |
|
|
118 |
|
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
