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Minnesota: Obama Leads McCain 52% to 44%

In Minnesota, Barack Obama has opened an eight-point lead over John McCain.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Minnesota voters finds Obama attracting 52% of the vote while McCain earns 44% (Demographic Crosstabs available for Premium Members.)

Last month, Obama’s lead was down to four percentage points. Two months ago, the Democrat had a twelve point advantage.

Obama is now supported by 95% of Democrats, up from 89% in August. The Democrat also holds a modest lead among unaffiliated voters after splitting that vote with McCain last month. McCain gets the vote from 93% of Republicans, up two points from a month ago and fourteen points since July.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Obama is now viewed favorably by 64% of Minnesota voters, McCain by 52%. That’s quite a change from August when McCain drew the higher ratings. In August, many in Minnesota thought their Governor was a likely Vice Presidential running mate for McCain.

As for the running mates, Delaware Senator Joe Biden is viewed favorably by 55% and Alaska Governor Sarah Palin earns such positive reviews from 47%.

Forty-six percent (46%) say that McCain made the right choice when selecting Palin to be his running mate. Forty-four percent (44%) say the same about Obama’s choice of Biden.

Eighty-three percent (83%) of voters believe Palin is politically conservative while 50% believe Biden is politically liberal.

Minnesota has gone for the Democratic presidential candidates in the last eight elections. John Kerry won the state 51% to 48% over President Bush in 2004.

The Senate race in Minnesota between incumbent Republican Norm Coleman and Democratic challenger Al Franken remains a toss-up.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll continues to show a very competitive race.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats currently have an % chance of winning Minnesota’s 10 Electoral College votes in November (results updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). Minnesota is considered a “Likely Democratic” state in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

This Minnesota survey was conducted on Thursday night, September 18, in the midst of the Wall Street roller-coaster week. Several state polls conducted that evening showed very positive results for Barack Obama and it was one of his best recent nights in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll. It remains to be seen whether this solid performance was a temporary blip in the race or the beginning of a new trend leading to a significant advantage for Obama.

President Bush’s job performance ratings have fallen this month in Minnesota. Now, just 27% rate his performance good or excellent, compared to 33% a month ago. Fifty-four percent (54%) say he is doing a poor job.

State polling was been released this week for Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois , Indiana, Maine, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina , Utah, Vermont, Virginia and Wisconsin. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling data are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

This survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations Inc.

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See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Minnesota
Likely Democratic

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

43%

43%

42%

Obama (D)

55%

54%

51%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 18, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Minnesota Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/28/2008

43%

55%

10/22/2008

41%

56%

10/07/2008

45%

52%

09/18/2008

44%

52%

08/13/2008

42%

46%

07/22/2008

37%

49%

07/10/2008

34%

52%

06/11/2008

39%

52%

05/22/2008

38%

53%

04/22/2008

38%

52%

03/19/2008

43%

47%

02/16/2008

38%

53%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Minnesota

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

28%

45%

Somewhat Favorable

26%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

25%

11%

Very Unfavorable

21%

27%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.