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Minnesota: Obama 53% McCain 38%

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Minnesota the state shows that Barack Obama leads McCain by double-digits, 53% to 38%. That’s virtually identical to the election poll results from a month ago.

In fact, it’s the third time in four Minnesota polls that Obama has enjoyed a fourteen or fifteen point lead over McCain. In all three of those polls, McCain’s support has been at 38%. The one exception came in mid-March when McCain pulled to within four points of Obama. That poll was conducted two weeks after McCain wrapped up the GOP nomination and a few days after the first round of stories about Obama’s controversial former pastor, Jeremiah Wright.

Obama is supported by 77% of Democrats in the state and leads 58% to 32% among unaffiliated voters. McCain attracts 79% of Republicans.

While Obama appears dominant in Minnesota, he and McCain are very competitive nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given an % chance of winning Minnesota in November (results updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). Minnesota has cast its Electoral College Votes for the Democratic candidate in eight straight elections dating back to 1976. That’s the longest streak in the nation, but the last couple of Democratic victories have been won with modest margins—three percentage points in Election 2004 and two points in Election 2000. Minnesota is considered a “Likely Democratic” state in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Minnesota voters have a favorable opinion of Obama while McCain is viewed favorably by 52%. For Obama, those numbers are little changed from a month ago. McCain’s ratings have dropped four points.

In the unlikely event that Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, she also leads McCain 53% to 38%. Those numbers are a vast improvement for the former First Lady compared to earlier Minnesota polls.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of Minnesota voters say it is more important to get the troops home from Iraq than to win the war. Thirty-six percent (36%) disagree and see victory as the higher priority. Those numbers are just a few points different from the national average.

Forty-six percent (46%) say that, if McCain is elected President, victory is likely. Just half that number, 23%, see victory as likely if Obama wins the White House. However, 67% believe that a President Obama would bring the troops home during his first term in office. Just 40% think a President McCain would achieve that goal.

Minnesota voters are evenly divided as to which Democratic candidate would be the tougher general election candidate. Among Democrats, 46% see Clinton as the better candidate for the fall while 45% say Obama is stronger.

Thirty-two percent (32%) say that Clinton should drop out of the race while 20% want Obama to drop out.

Just 27% of Minnesota voters say that George W. Bush is doing a good or excellent job as President. That’s down five points from a month ago. Nationally, the President’s Approval Ratings are at an all-time low. In Minnesota, 59% say Bush is doing a poor job. That’s up seven points from 52% in April.

Forty-three percent (43%) say that Republican Tim Pawlenty is doing a Good or Excellent job as Governor. Twenty-six percent (26%) rate his performance as Poor. Those numbers are little changed over the past month.

Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman is one of several endangered incumbents in Election 2008. Minnesota’s Senate race looks to be very competitive.

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Minnesota
Likely Democratic

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

43%

43%

42%

Obama (D)

55%

54%

51%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 22, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Minnesota Trends: McCain vs. Clinton

Date

McCain

Clinton

05/22/2008

38%

53%

04/22/2008

42%

47%

03/19/2008

47%

46%

02/16/2008

47%

42%

Minnesota Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/28/2008

43%

55%

10/22/2008

41%

56%

10/07/2008

45%

52%

09/18/2008

44%

52%

08/13/2008

42%

46%

07/22/2008

37%

49%

07/10/2008

34%

52%

06/11/2008

39%

52%

05/22/2008

38%

53%

04/22/2008

38%

52%

03/19/2008

43%

47%

02/16/2008

38%

53%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Minnesota

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

28%

45%

Somewhat Favorable

26%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

25%

11%

Very Unfavorable

21%

27%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.