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Michigan: Now It’s Obama By Three

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll in Michigan shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. This is the fourth poll in Michigan since McCain wrapped up the Republican nomination and all four have found the candidates within three points of each other. In both May and late-March McCain held a statistically insignificant one-point lead.

Obama has reduced the gap among male voters and now trails McCain by eleven percentage points among men. That’s down from a nineteen point deficit last month. Obama leads by thirteen among women, a figure that has changed little. McCain is supported by 83% of Republicans while Obama currently gets the vote from 74% of Democrats. In our previous survey, those numbers were 84% and 70% respectively. McCain now leads by five points among Michigan’s unaffiliated voters, down from a thirteen point lead in May.

Obama has a solid lead among voters under 30, but older voters tend to be fairly evenly divided.

The current survey was taken six days after Obama clinched the Democratic Presidential Nomination. During that time, he has enjoyed a modest bounce nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

McCain is viewed favorably by 58% of the state’s voters,. Obama by 54%. For both candidates, those figures reflect a four-point improvement compared to a month ago. As has been seen in other polling throughout the country, opinions are more firmly held about Obama. Thirty percent (30%) have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democratic nominee while 24% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, those number are 18% Very Favorable and 16% Very Unfavorable.

McCain will get no help from the President whose ratings slipped even further this month. Fifty-five percent (55%) of Michigan voters now say that George W. Bush is doing a Poor job. Just 27% say he is doing a Good or Excellent job down from 32% in May. Nationally, the President’s Job Approval is at an all-time low.

Voters are a bit less pessimistic about their Governor—39% say that Jennifer Granholm is doing a Poor job while 30% say Good or Excellent. Granholm’s numbers have shifted little over the past month.

Michigan has cast its seventeen Electoral College votes for the Democrats in four straight Presidential elections. However this economically devastated state has been trending slightly in the Republican direction—Bill Clinton won Michigan by thirteen points in 1996, Al Gore won by five in 2000, and John Kerry won by just three points in 2004. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of doing carrying the state for the fifth straight time this November. At the time this poll was released, Michigan was ranked as “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of Michigan Democrats believe Obama should select vanquished rival Hillary Clinton as his running mate. Thirty-one percent (31%) disagree. Those figures are similar to the national average.

Forty-six percent (46%) say that Obama is too inexperienced to be President, a bit higher than the national average. Forty-four percent (44%) disagree with the assertion that Obama is too inexperienced. Twenty-eight percent (28%) of Michigan voters say McCain is too old to be President while 64% disagree. Nationally, 30% say he is too old.

Most Michigan voters—56%--say that getting troops home from Iraq is a higher priority than winning the War. Thirty-five percent (35%) disagree and say victory is more important. These figures are within a few points of the national average.

Seventy percent (70%) of Michigan voters say that the federal government has itself become a special interest group that looks out for its own interests. Just 12% disagree. Only 14% believe that the government today represents the will of the American people. These figures, too, are very close to the national average.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

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Michigan Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

43%

42%

41%

Obama (D)

53%

53%

50%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on June 9, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Michigan Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/28/2008

43%

53%

10/08/2008

40%

56%

09/21/2008

44%

51%

09/10/2008

46%

51%

08/07/2008

40%

47%

07/10/2008

39%

47%

06/09/2008

42%

45%

05/07/2008

45%

44%

03/25/2008

43%

42%

03/10/2008

44%

41%

02/17/2008

39%

47%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Michigan

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

25%

42%

Somewhat Favorable

28%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

21%

11%

Very Unfavorable

25%

29%

Not Sure

1%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.