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Kentucky: McCain Still Has Solid Advantage

John McCain still has a comfortable lead over Barack Obama in Kentucky despite the fact that the race has become closer by nine points over the past month. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Bluegrass State finds McCain up 51% to 35%.

Last month, the Republican nominee led 57% to 32% before Obama clinched the Democratic nomination.

McCain has a decisive 57% to 28% advantage among men in Kentucky, but only leads the Democrat by four points among women in the state. He earns support from 79% of Republicans and a third of Kentucky’s Democrats Obama only attracts half (50%) of Kentucky Democrats and trails by eleven among unaffiliated voters.

Kentucky has typically cast its eight Electoral College votes for Republican candidates, though voters have chosen Democratic candidates who hail from southern states, such as Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter. In 2004, Bush easily won the state by a 60% to 40% margin. Rasmussen Markets data shows that McCain is given a % chance of winning in November and Kentucky is classified as “Safely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

McCain is viewed favorably by 63% of Kentucky voters, and unfavorably by 34%. Obama’s ratings are less flattering: 41% favorable, 57% unfavorable.

A third of Kentucky voters (34%) think Hillary Clinton should be Obama’s running mate, while nearly half (46%) disagree. Those numbers show Kentucky voters are slightly more enthusiastic than the country as a whole for an Obama-Clinton ticket.

While just over a quarter of voters (26%) think McCain is too old to be president, 59% of voters think Obama is too inexperienced to be president.

Seventy-two percent (72%) of voters in Kentucky think drilling in offshore oil wells should be allowed. That result is a bit higher than the national average. Six-out-of-ten (61%) think it is likely that gas prices would go down if offshore drilling is allowed. A recent national survey found that 62% of voters agree with McCain on this issue.

A third of voters (34%) think President Bush is doing a good or excellent job, while half (49%) think he is doing a poor job.

Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell has a seven-point edge in the Kentucky Senate race, but the long-term veteran still is supported by slightly less than half of all Kentucky voters.

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Kentucky Safe Republican

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

55%

53%

54%

Obama (D)

43%

43%

40%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 25, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Kentucky Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/29/2008

55%

43%

10/21/2008

52%

44%

09/30/2008

52%

42%

07/29/2008

49%

39%

06/25/2008

51%

35%

05/22/2008

57%

32%

Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Kentucky

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

41%

33%

Somewhat Favorable

23%

12%

Somewhat Unfavorable

15%

13%

Very Unfavorable

20%

41%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.