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Kentucky: McCain 52%, Obama 44%

The presidential race in Kentucky has changed little over the past month. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds John McCain leading Barack Obama 52% to 44%.

Unlike in much of the county, support for McCain is the same in Kentucky as it was in September, but Obama’s support has bounced up two points over the past month. The last two polls in the state found McCain leading by 10 percentage points.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that McCain is given a % chance of winning Kentucky in November. The state is classified as “Safely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Incumbent Republican Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, remains ahead of his Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford in the U.S. Senate race in Kentucky.

Though McCain earns the support of over a quarter (26%) of Democrats in Kentucky, Obama has a solid 56% to 40% lead among unaffiliated voters. McCain leads his opponent 51% to 47% among men and 53% to 42% among women.

Voters who rarely or never attend religious services favor Obama by a 63% to 37% margin, while those who attend church at least once a week overwhelmingly favor McCain (Premium Members can view full demographic crosstabs).

McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of Kentucky voters, down from 63% in September. Thirty-eight percent (38%) have an unfavorable view of the GOP nominee, up from 34% last month. Obama’s numbers are 52% favorable, 47% unfavorable. The Democrat’s numbers have grown more positive over the past month.

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Nearly half (48%) of voters in Kentucky say elections are generally fair to voters, while 40% say they are not fair. Black voters say elections are unfair by a 53% to 43% margin, while white voters say they are fair, 49% to 38%. Eighty-one percent (81%) say they are confident their votes will be counted in this year’s election, with 52% who say they are very confident.

Forty-six percent (46%) of voters in Kentucky believe it is more likely that people who are not legally eligible to vote will be able to vote, while 36% say it is more likely that those who are eligible will be denied the chance to vote. Most Republicans fear ineligible people will be granted the right to vote, while most Democrats think the opposite is more likely. The same contrast appears between white and black voters.

Most voters in Kentucky (83%) say voters should be required to show photo identification before voting.

Though his campaign has suffered due to the struggling economy, McCain is trusted more than Obama on the economy in Kentucky by a 50% to 44% margin. However, 44% of Kentucky voters agree with Obama's idea that spreading the wealth around is a good thing, while 40% disagree.

Voters in Kentucky believe McCain will win their state by a 67% to 24% margin.

President Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 33% of voters, while 48% rate his job performance as poor.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

Kentucky
Safe Republican

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

55%

53%

54%

Obama (D)

43%

43%

40%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 21, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Kentucky Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/29/2008

55%

43%

10/21/2008

52%

44%

09/30/2008

52%

42%

07/29/2008

49%

39%

06/25/2008

51%

35%

05/22/2008

57%

32%

Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Kentucky

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

41%

33%

Somewhat Favorable

23%

12%

Somewhat Unfavorable

15%

13%

Very Unfavorable

20%

41%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.