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Iowa: Obama takes 10% lead over McCain

Barack Obama has taken a double-digit lead over John McCain 48% to 38% in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Iowa. When “leaners” are included, the Democrat is ahead 51% to 41%.

In June, Obama enjoyed a seven-point lead in the battleground state. That lead represented a push for Obama from May, when he was ahead by just 2 percentage points. McCain has held steady now at 38% for two months in a row.

The race is closer among voters not affiliated with either political party. Among those voters, Obama has a 38% to 34% lead. In June, Obama had a much larger lead 44% to 29% lead among those voters.

Rasmussen Markets shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning Iowa’s seven Electoral College Votes in November.George W. Bush carried Iowa by only 10,000 votes in 2004, having lost the state four years earlier to Al Gore by half that many. At the time this poll was released, Iowa was rated as “Leans Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

As he does nationally, Obama continues to do much better among women than men in Iowa. The Democrat has a commanding 52% to 34% lead among women voters in Iowa, but the two candidates are tied at 43% among men.

Obama is viewed favorably by 59% of Iowa voters and unfavorably by 38%. McCain’s numbers are 56% favorable, 40% unfavorable.

A plurality of Iowa voters(40%) thinks the economy is the most important issue in the upcoming election. National security comes in a distant second, with 25% who see it as the top issue.

When it comes to high fuel prices, 58% of Iowan voters think drilling in offshore oil wells should be allowed, while 50% think gas prices would likely go down if this practice were implemented. Forty-six percent (46%) think the United States should allow oil drilling of the Alaskan Wildlife Refuge, but 41% disagree.

However, voters are less enthusiastic about the idea of controlling their own energy use. Most Iowa voters (60%) oppose a reduction of the national speed limit to 55 mph, and 62% do not think lowering the speed limit would reduce the price of gas.

Forty-four percent (44%) think it is more important to protect the environment than to reduce fuel prices, but 41% disagree.

Just 29% of Iowa voters think President Bush is doing a good or excellent job as president. Over half (52%) think he is doing a poor job.

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Iowa Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

44%

43%

42%

Obama (D)

52%

50%

52%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 10, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Iowa Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/23/2008

44%

52%

09/25/2008

43%

51%

08/07/2008

41%

46%

07/10/2008

38%

48%

06/10/2008

38%

45%

05/13/2008

42%

44%

03/31/2008

42%

46%

02/18/2008

41%

44%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Iowa

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

28%

44%

Somewhat Favorable

23%

12%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

14%

Very Unfavorable

24%

30%

Not Sure

1%

0%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.