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Iowa: Obama Expands Lead in Hawkeye State

Barack Obama, enjoying a bounce in national polling since clinching the Democratic Presidential Nomination, is also expanding his lead in Iowa ( see video).

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Hawkeye State finds Obama leading John McCain 45% to 38%. This is the fourth Rasmussen poll in the state and Obama had a two to four point edge in each of the earlier polls. A month ago, Obama was up by just two percentage points.

In all four Iowa polls, Obama’s support has stayed in a narrow range from 44% to 46%. The current poll reflects McCain’s lowest level of support in the state.

Nationally, in the week since wrapping up the nomination, Obama has opened a solid, single-digit lead over McCain in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

The most recent survey also found that Iowa Democrats still haven’t warmed up to Hillary Clinton since handing her a major defeat in the state caucuses five months ago. Just 35% of the state Democrats believe Obama should select her as his Vice Presidential running mate, a lower total than has been found in any state polling to date. Nationally, 51% of Democrats think Clinton should be tapped for the number two slot.

Obama has expanded his lead based primarily on more support from women. He leads now by nineteen points among women, up from an eight point advantage last month. McCain has a seven-point advantage among men. Obama is supported by 77% of Democrats and leads McCain 44% to 29% among unaffiliated voters. McCain has lost nine points among unaffiliated voters over the past month but is supported by 82% of Republicans.

Rasmussen Markets shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning Iowa’s Seven Electoral College Votes this fall. George W. Bush won the state by 10,000 votes out of 1.5 million in Election 2004. Four years earlier, he lost the state to Al Gore by 5,000 votes. At the time this poll was released, Iowa was rated as “Leans Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Obama is viewed favorably by 59% of Iowa voters, McCain by 58%. For both men, that represents and improvement over the past month. Obama and McCain remain very close nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Twenty-seven percent (27%) of Iowa voters believe McCain is too old to be President and 41% believe that Obama is too inexperienced. Those figures very closely reflect the national totals.

Fifty percent (50%) of Iowa’s Likely Voters say that it is more important to get troops home from Iraq than to win the War. Thirty-nine percent (39%) take the opposite view and say victory is the higher priority. Once again, views in Iowa are very close to the national average. Sixty-three percent (63%) believe Obama is at least somewhat likely to get the troops home during his first term in office. Only 34% say McCain is likely to do the same.

Iowa voters also retain a healthy skepticism of government—66% say that the federal government itself has become a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests. Only 14% disagree. And, only 15% believe that the government today represents the will of the people. Sixty-nine percent (69%) say it does not. Those views, too, are close to the national average.

President Bush won 49% of the vote in Iowa four years ago but today just 30% of Iowa voters believe he is doing a good or an excellent job. Fifty-one percent (51%) believe he is doing a poor job.

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Iowa Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

44%

43%

42%

Obama (D)

52%

50%

52%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 10, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Iowa Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/23/2008

44%

52%

09/25/2008

43%

51%

08/07/2008

41%

46%

07/10/2008

38%

48%

06/10/2008

38%

45%

05/13/2008

42%

44%

03/31/2008

42%

46%

02/18/2008

41%

44%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Iowa

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

28%

44%

Somewhat Favorable

23%

12%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

14%

Very Unfavorable

24%

30%

Not Sure

1%

0%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.