Barack Obama, enjoying a bounce in national polling since clinching the Democratic Presidential Nomination, is also expanding his lead in Iowa ( see video).
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Hawkeye State finds Obama leading John McCain 45% to 38%. This is the fourth Rasmussen poll in the state and Obama had a two to four point edge in each of the earlier polls. A month ago, Obama was up by just two percentage points.
The most recent survey also found that Iowa Democrats still haven’t warmed up to Hillary Clinton since handing her a major defeat in the state caucuses five months ago. Just 35% of the state Democrats believe Obama should select her as his Vice Presidential running mate, a lower total than has been found in any state polling to date. Nationally, 51% of Democrats think Clinton should be tapped for the number two slot.
Obama has expanded his lead based primarily on more support from women. He leads now by nineteen points among women, up from an eight point advantage last month. McCain has a seven-point advantage among men. Obama is supported by 77% of Democrats and leads McCain 44% to 29% among unaffiliated voters. McCain has lost nine points among unaffiliated voters over the past month but is supported by 82% of Republicans.
Rasmussen Markets shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning Iowa’s Seven Electoral College Votes this fall. George W. Bush won the state by 10,000 votes out of 1.5 million in Election 2004. Four years earlier, he lost the state to Al Gore by 5,000 votes. At the time this poll was released, Iowa was rated as “Leans Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.
Fifty percent (50%) of Iowa’s Likely Voters say that it is more important to get troops home from Iraq than to win the War. Thirty-nine percent (39%) take the opposite view and say victory is the higher priority. Once again, views in Iowa are very close to the national average. Sixty-three percent (63%) believe Obama is at least somewhat likely to get the troops home during his first term in office. Only 34% say McCain is likely to do the same.
President Bush won 49% of the vote in Iowa four years ago but today just 30% of Iowa voters believe he is doing a good or an excellent job. Fifty-one percent (51%) believe he is doing a poor job.
See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 10, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
See Methodology.
|
Iowa Trends: McCain vs. Obama |
||
|---|---|---|
|
Date |
McCain |
Obama |
|
10/23/2008 |
44% |
52% |
|
43% |
51% |
|
|
41% |
46% |
|
|
38% |
48% |
|
|
38% |
45% |
|
|
42% |
44% |
|
|
42% |
46% |
|
|
41% |
44% |
|
|
Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Iowa |
||
|---|---|---|
|
McCain |
Obama |
|
|
Very Favorable |
28% |
44% |
|
Somewhat Favorable |
23% |
12% |
|
Somewhat Unfavorable |
24% |
14% |
|
Very Unfavorable |
24% |
30% |
|
Not Sure |
1% |
0% |
|
Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary |
|
|---|---|
|
160 |
|
|
260 |
|
|
118 |
|
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
