If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

 

Iowa: Obama by Eight

Barack Obama now leads John McCain 51% to 43% in Iowa, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state.

Last month, Obama saw his lead cut to five percentage points after leading by ten in June. Iowa is viewed by some as a swing state, although the 2004 election was the first time in 20 years that the state had gone for the Republican presidential candidate. President Bush carried the state by less than 10,000 votes that year.

The latest numbers show Obama leading 53% to 33% among unaffiliated voters in the state. Though he has a 53% to 40% among women, Obama just edges out McCain among men by a 48% to 45% margin (full demographic crosstabs are available to Premium Members).

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of Iowa voters and unfavorably by 42%. McCain’s numbers are 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Rasmussen Markets data gives the Democrats a % chance of winning Iowa’s seven Electoral College votes in November. With release of this poll, Iowa moves from “Leans Democrat” to “Likely Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Obama’s running mate, Joe Biden, is viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 44%. GOP running mate Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 48% and unfavorably by 49%.

Voters in Iowa trust Obama more than McCain to handle the economy by a 47% to 43% margin. However, 62% believe bridging the gap between rich and poor is more important to Obama than creating economic growth. Voters overall think that creating economic growth is more important by a 53% to 36% margin. Voters believe McCain is more concerned with economic growth by a 66% to 11% margin.

Not surprisingly, the majority of voters in Iowa (55%) give the economy a poor rating. Just 13% of voters rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent. Those numbers are similar to those found on the national level. Just 5% of Iowa voters think the economy is getting better, while 80% believe it getting worse.

Investors, who make up 71% of voters in Iowa, favor Obama by a 48% to 45% margin. However, when it comes to the economy, investors trust McCain by a 46% to 44% margin. This week, investor confidence nationally fell to an all-time low.

President Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 31% of Iowa voters, while 51% say he is doing a poor job.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Iowa Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

44%

43%

42%

Obama (D)

52%

50%

52%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 25, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Iowa Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/23/2008

44%

52%

09/25/2008

43%

51%

08/07/2008

41%

46%

07/10/2008

38%

48%

06/10/2008

38%

45%

05/13/2008

42%

44%

03/31/2008

42%

46%

02/18/2008

41%

44%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Iowa

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

28%

44%

Somewhat Favorable

23%

12%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

14%

Very Unfavorable

24%

30%

Not Sure

1%

0%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.