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Iowa: Obama 44% McCain 42%

In Iowa, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Barack Obama leading John McCain 44% to 42%. This is the third consecutive poll to find the candidates very close in the state that gave Obama his first victory on the way to the Democratic Presidential Nomination. A month ago, it was Obama by four. In February, it was Obama by three.

In all three polls, Obama’s support has stayed in a narrow range from 44% to 46% while McCain has stayed at 41% or 42%/.

Obama leads by eight points among women while McCain has a four point advantage among men. Obama is supported by 71% of Democrats and leads McCain 45% to 38% among unaffiliated voters. McCain is supported by 77% of Republicans.

Rasmussen Markets shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning Iowa’s Seven Electoral College Votes this fall. George W. Bush won the state by 10,000 votes out of 1.5 million in Election 2004. Four years earlier, he lost the state to Al Gore by 5,000 votes. At the time this poll was released, Iowa was rated as “Leans Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Obama is viewed favorably by 53% of Iowa voters, little changed from a month ago. McCain is viewed favorably by 51%, a drop of seven percentage points over the past month. This is consistent with national polling data which shows a modest decline in favorability for McCain over the past month. Obama and McCain remain very close nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Just 11% of Iowa voters believe the United States is heading in the right direction. Eighty-four percent (84%) disagree and believe the nation has gotten off on the wrong track.

Forty-two percent (42%) favor a gas tax holiday, a proposal forwarded in slightly different ways by McCain and Hillary Clinton. Forty-eight percent (48%) are opposed. Fifty-four percent (54%) know that Obama opposes the tax holiday which he brands as pandering. Nationally, voters are evenly divided on the gas tax holiday.

Just 34% of Iowa voters believe the federal government needs more tax revenue to fund important national programs. Fifty-one percent (51%) disagree. These figures are similar to the national average.

Sixty percent (60%) are worried that the next President will raise taxes so much that it will harm the economy.

Thirty-two percent (32%) are worried that the next President will cut taxes so much that it will harm important government programs.

By a 61% to 19% margin, Iowa voters oppose an increase in the capital gains tax. Fifty percent (50%) believe hiking that tax would hurt the economy.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of Iowa voters own at least $5,000 worth of stocks, bonds, and mutual funds.

Thirty-three percent (33%) of Iowa voters say President Bush is doing a good or excellent job. Forty-eight percent (48%) say he is doing a poor job.

As for Iowa Governor Chet Culver (D), 35% say he is doing a good or excellent job while 30% give him poor marks.

In the unlikely event that Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, she trails McCain in Iowa by a 45% to 42% margin. Last week, Rasmussen Reports indicated its belief that the Democratic race is effectively over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee.

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Iowa Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

44%

43%

42%

Obama (D)

52%

50%

52%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 13, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Iowa Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/23/2008

44%

52%

09/25/2008

43%

51%

08/07/2008

41%

46%

07/10/2008

38%

48%

06/10/2008

38%

45%

05/13/2008

42%

44%

03/31/2008

42%

46%

02/18/2008

41%

44%

Iowa Trends: McCain vs. Clinton

Date

McCain

Clinton

5/13/2008

45%

42%

3/31/2008

51%

36%

2/18/2008

47%

37%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Iowa

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

28%

44%

Somewhat Favorable

23%

12%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

14%

Very Unfavorable

24%

30%

Not Sure

1%

0%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.