Polling this week in Florida and Ohio shows little net change from the previous week with McCain holding a very modest advantage in each state. McCain and Obama both increased their level of support slightly in each as the number of undecided/third party voters declined by three points in each.

In Florida, it’s McCain by five, 51% to 46%. In Ohio, it’s McCain 50%, Obama 46%.

Pennsylvania and Virginia also showed little change this week, but both of these states shifted slightly back in the direction of their historic voting patterns after being tied a week ago. Now, Obama is up by three in Pennsylvania (48%-45%) and McCain is up by two in Virginia (50% to 48%).

It would be a mistake to read too much into these minor changes as all four states remain very competitive with just over six weeks to go.

In Michigan, Obama holds a 51% to 44% advantage over McCain. That too is little changed from the previous Rasmussen Reports survey conducted on September 10.

Over the past week, national trends showed a slight improvement for Obama. A week ago, McCain was up by three in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and now Obama is up by one. This trend is not found in the state polling.

There is no clear reason as to why these battleground state polls remained stable while the national trend moved in Obama’s direction. However, it is worth noting that Obama didn’t really gain ground nationally over the past week. Rather, McCain lost support.

Obama went from 47% in the daily Presidential Tracking poll a week ago to 48% today. At the same time, McCain slipped from 50% to 47%. It is possible that the more intense campaigning in the battleground states helped stabilize McCain’s support. During Election 2004, there were often times when the battleground state polls moved with a different rhythm than the polling in states without intense campaigning.

Results from four of the five states in the Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polling now show results similar to the actual election results from four years ago. Virginia, however, is more competitive than it was in Election 2004.

A number of other themes emerge from the data that are worth noting:

· The economy is clearly the top issue, ranked as top priority by 45% - 52% of voters in each state. National security issues are a distant second in all five states.

· Obama is trusted more than McCain on the economy by a seven-point margin in both Michigan and Pennsylvania. The candidates are evenly divided on the issue in the other three states.

· McCain is trusted more on national security issues in all five states.

· Overall, McCain is trusted more than Obama in four of the five states, with Michigan as the exception. In Pennsylvania, McCain’s advantage on the trust question is only two percentage points while his biggest edge is found in Florida.

· When asked who they would like advice from on the toughest decision of their life, a plurality or majority in all five states pick McCain. The margins are very small in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

· Voters in Michigan are somewhat less certain of how they will vote compared to the other states. Just 77% of Obama voters in Michigan are certain while 74% of McCain voters say they won’t change their mind.

· The highest level of certainty is found in Florida.

· The Republican support for McCain is quite stable. The modest changes from week-to-week can generally be found in changes among Democrats and unaffiliated voters.

· In none of the states do third-party candidates attract more than two percent of the vote.

· In Pennsylvania, 5% of voters remain undecided. That’s higher than in any of the other states.

The high level of uncertainty in Michigan and the large number of undecided voters in Pennsylvania create fluid situations worth watching in the coming weeks.

This week, it will be especially significant to watch how the candidates respond to recent economic turmoil and the proposed federal rescue plan for the financial markets. National polling released by Rasmussen Reports today shows that just 28% of voters favor the plan and just one voter in four has confidence in either Obama or McCain to bring the type of reform needed to Wall Street.

Finally, the most important scheduled events of the campaign season—the Presidential debates. Next week’s polling should provide an early indication of which candidate did better in the debates.

NOTE: Numbers in parentheses indicate results from September 14 surveys for all states but Michigan. Numbers in parentheses for Michigan indicate results from September 10 survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports.

NOTE: McKinney not on ballot in Pennsylvania.

Rasmussen Reports conducted five state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on September 21, 2008. The surveys were conducted in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. A total of 500 Likely Voters were interviewed in each state using the Rasmussen Reports automated telephone survey methodology (see www.RasmussenReports.com for details).

The margin of sampling error for the full sample in each state poll is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Caution should be used in interpreting subsets of the data as such results will have an even larger margin of sampling error. It is anticipated that larger sample sizes will be used later in the election season which will allow for a more detailed examination of demographic distinctions.

In four of the five states—Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia—Rasmussen Reports had conducted similar surveys on both September 7 and September 14.