If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

 

FOX/Rasmussen Swing State Polling - October 26, 2008

Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polling this week in Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia shows some modest movement in a few states, but the overall dynamic of the race is little changed and still favors Barack Obama.

In fact, a review of all Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polling conducted in October shows a race that has remained quite stable despite the frenetic pace of campaigning, massive amounts of campaign ads, and daily media coverage of the latest campaign tactic or gaffe.

In Missouri, Obama is up by a single percentage point, 48% to 47%. That’s the strongest showing yet for McCain in polling conducted during October and comes just after his weakest showing of the year when he trailed by five a week ago. However, as we noted at the time, last week’s survey was conducted the day after Obama held two massive rallies in the state. Despite these ups and downs, Obama has held a very slight lead—from one to five points--in all four Fox News/Rasmussen Reports Missouri polls conducted during October.

In Ohio, it’s Obama 49% McCain 45%. That’s an improvement for Obama compared to a week ago when McCain led by two. In the Buckeye State, Obama’s support has been between 47% and 49% in each of the past five weekly Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polls. This is the first time that McCain’s support has fallen below the 47% level since weekly polling of the state began in early September.

In Florida, Obama is also back on top this week, 51% to 47%. A week ago, the two candidates were essentially even but the current results are very similar to those from polls earlier in October.

In North Carolina, McCain attracts 49% of the vote while Obama earns 48%. This is the third time in four weeks that the candidates have been within a single point of each other. Last week, Obama was up by three.

In Colorado, it’s Obama by four, 50% to 46%. Obama has been at 50% or 51% in each October Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll of Colorado voters while McCain has been at 45% or 46% each time.

Stability reigns in Virginia as well where Obama leads 51% to 47%. As in Colorado, the results for each candidate have been virtually identical in four consecutive Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polls of Virginia voters.

The stability of these results is consistent with national polling over the past month. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll has shown Obama with support from 50% to 52% of voters every single day for 32 consecutive days. During that same time frame, McCain’s support has been in the 44% to 46% range and the gap between the candidates has stayed between four and eight points.

A number of other themes emerge from the data that are worth noting:

· Nationally, Obama is currently polling eight or nine percentage points better than John Kerry’s final results from four years ago. He is also doing eight or nine points better than Kerry in three of the six Battleground State polls this week—Colorado, Florida, and Missouri.

· Obama is outperforming Kerry by an even wider margin in two Southern states—13 points better in North Carolina and 12 points better in Virginia.

· Obama is outperforming Kerry by a smaller margin in Ohio, six points.

· The economy remains the most important issue in all six states.

· Obama is trusted by slightly more voters than McCain on economic issues in five of the six states. In North Carolina, 48% trust each candidate most on the economy.

· The data suggests an ongoing challenge for Exit Polling this year. In every state but one, a majority of Democrats say they’d be very likely to take the time to fill out an Exit Poll questionnaire if asked. In every state but one, the number of Republicans willing to do the same is below 40%.

· The number of Democrats who say they’re Very Likely to participate in an Exit Poll ranges from a low of 47% in Missouri to a high of 54% in Ohio.

· The range of Republicans that willing to take part in the Exit Poll goes from a low of 33% in Missouri to a high of 43% in Ohio.

· In five of the six states, more voters would turn to McCain than Obama for advice on the toughest decision of their life.

· In Virginia, however, 47% say they’d prefer advice from Obama while 46% name McCain. That’s a change since we first asked the question in early September. At that time, 50% of Virginia voters preferred advice from McCain while 44% chose Obama.

The most important thing to look for in the coming week will be any significant changes in the national tracking poll numbers. If the national numbers move in one direction or the other, similar movement is likely to be found in the state surveys.

Obama

McCain

Barr

Nader

McKny

Not Sure

10/26/2008

50%

46%

0%

1%

0%

2%

10/19/2008

51%

46%

0%

0%

0%

3%

10/05/2008

51%

45%

1%

1%

1%

2%

09/28/2008

49%

48%

0%

1%

0%

2%

09/14/2008

46%

48%

1%

3%

0%

2%

09/07/2008

49%

46%

2%

0%

0%

2%


Obama

McCain

Barr

Nader

McKny

Not Sure

10/26/2008

51%

47%

0%

0%

0%

1%

10/19/2008

48%

49%

0%

1%

0%

2%

10/12/2008

51%

46%

1%

0%

0%

2%

10/05/2008

52%

45%

0%

1%

0%

2%

09/28/2008

47%

47%

0%

1%

0%

5%

09/21/2008

46%

51%

0%

0%

0%

3%

09/14/2008

44%

49%

2%

2%

0%

3%

09/07/2008

48%

48%

0%

2%

0%

2%


Obama

McCain

Barr

Nader

McKny

Not Sure

10/26/2008

48%

47%

1%

2%

0%

3%

10/19/2008

49%

44%

1%

2%

1%

4%

10/12/2008

50%

47%

0%

1%

0%

2%

10/05/2008

50%

47%

1%

1%

0%

2%

09/11/2008

46%

51%

*

*

*

2%


Obama

McCain

Barr

Nader

McKny

Not Sure

10/26/2008

48%

49%

1%

1%

0%

2%

10/19/2008

51%

48%

0%

0%

0%

1%

10/12/2008

48%

48%

1%

0%

0%

3%

10/08/2008

49%

45%

*

*

*

2%

09/30/2008

50%

47%

*

*

*

5%

09/23/2008

49%

48%

*

*

*

3%

09/18/2008

47%

50%

*

*

*

3%


Obama

McCain

Barr

Nader

McKny

Not Sure

10/26/2008

49%

45%

1%

0%

0%

4%

10/19/2008

47%

49%

0%

1%

0%

2%

10/12/2008

49%

47%

0%

1%

0%

3%

10/05/2008

47%

48%

1%

1%

0%

3%

09/28/2008

47%

48%

0%

0%

0%

4%

09/21/2008

46%

50%

1%

1%

0%

2%

09/14/2008

45%

48%

0%

1%

0%

6%

09/07/2008

44%

51%

0%

1%

0%

3%


Obama

McCain

Barr

Nader

McKny

Not Sure

10/26/2008

51%

47%

0%

0%

0%

2%

10/12/2008

50%

47%

1%

0%

0%

2%

10/05/2008

50%

48%

1%

0%

0%

1%

09/28/2008

50%

47%

0%

1%

1%

1%

09/21/2008

48%

50%

1%

0%

0%

1%

09/14/2008

48%

48%

0%

1%

0%

2%

09/07/2008

47%

49%

1%

1%

0%

2%

State

Cand.

Total

GOP

Dem

Other

CO

Obama

50%

6%

95%

53%

 

McCain

46%

94%

2%

39%

           

FL

Obama

51%

16%

86%

54%

 

McCain

47%

83%

13%

42%

           

MO

Obama

48%

8%

92%

44%

 

McCain

47%

90%

5%

45%

           

NC

Obama

48%

6%

83%

57%

 

McCain

49%

91%

15%

37%

           

OH

Obama

49%

10%

88%

51%

 

McCain

45%

87%

9%

39%

           

VA

Obama

51%

8%

94%

51%

 

McCain

47%

89%

6%

44%

Rasmussen Reports conducted six state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on October 26, 2008. The surveys were conducted in Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. A total of 1,000 Likely Voters were interviewed in each state using the Rasmussen Reports automated telephone survey methodology (see www.RasmussenReports.com for details).

The margin of sampling error for the full sample in each state poll is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Caution should be used in interpreting subsets of the data as such results will have an even larger margin of sampling error.

In five of the six states, Rasmussen Reports had conducted similar surveys for Fox News on October 19 and earlier this fall. In Virginia, Rasmussen Reports conducted a similar survey for Fox News on October 12 and earlier this fall.


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205





Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.