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FOX/Rasmussen Swing State Polling - November 2, 2008

Overview

Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polling this week in Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia shows some improvements for John McCain but the overall results still leave Barack Obama in a better position on the eve of the election.

Obama now leads in two of the Battleground states while the candidates are tied or within a point of each other in four. At one level, that’s an improvement for McCain. Last week, he was even in just two states while trailing in four.

But, while it’s an improvement for McCain, this week’s results don’t alter the underlying dynamic of the race. All six of these Battleground states were Republican states in 2004 and McCain probably needs to win all six to capture the White House.

Ohio is one of the two states where McCain gained ground this week and the candidates are now tied at 49% in the Buckeye State. This helps explain why the campaigns have had such a strong presence in the state during the closing days of Election 2008. In the last six Fox News/Rasmussen Reports Ohio polls, Obama and McCain have been within two points of each other five times. Neither man has reached the 50% level of support in any of the past six Ohio surveys.

McCain also gained ground in Florida this week. After trailing by four a week ago, the Republican hopeful now holds a one-point advantage, 50% to 49%. This is the second time in three weeks that McCain has been up by a point in Florida. A month ago, Obama was up by seven in the state.

There was little overall change in the other four Battleground States this week.

In Colorado, it’s Obama 51% McCain 47% as both men added a point to last week’s totals. This is the fourth straight Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll to show Obama attracting 50% or 51% of the vote. The Democrat has been up by four to six points in each of these polls.

In Missouri, the candidates are tied at 49%. Last week, Obama was up by a point but neither man has reached the 50% level of support in the past three surveys.

In North Carolina, McCain is up by a point for the second week in a row and now leads 50% to 49%. This race has remained very close all year. In five surveys during the past month, each candidate has held a statistically insignificant lead twice and each man has reached the 50% mark once.

Finally, in Virginia, the overall results are unchanged with Obama leading 51% to 47%. This is the fifth straight weekly poll to show Obama at 50% or 51% and enjoying a lead ranging from two to four points.

The stability of these results is consistent with national polling over the past month. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll has shown Obama with support from 50% to 52% of voters every single day for 39 consecutive days.

If McCain wins all six Battleground States, Rasmussen Reports projections indicate that the Republican would have 255 Electoral College votes in his column. To reach 270—the number needed for victory—McCain would also need to win some other states currently too close to call or leaning in the other direction. Any such scenario would have to include a McCain victory in Indiana or Pennsylvania.

A number of other themes emerge from the data that are worth noting:

· McCain gained ground among unaffiliated voters in five of the six states this week.

· In Colorado, the unaffiliated vote was little changed.

· Obama’s level of support stayed even or ticked up a point this week in five of the six states. Florida was the sole exception.

· This is consistent with national numbers showing that whatever tightening of the race has taken place over the past week has come from undecided voters breaking slightly in McCain’s direction. There is little or no evidence of a decline in support nationally for Obama.

Trends

COLORADO

Obama

McCain

Barr

Nader

McKny

Not Sure

11/02/2008

51%

47%

1%

0%

0%

1%

10/26/2008

50%

46%

0%

1%

0%

2%

10/19/2008

51%

46%

0%

0%

0%

3%

10/05/2008

51%

45%

1%

1%

1%

2%

09/28/2008

49%

48%

0%

1%

0%

2%

09/14/2008

46%

48%

1%

3%

0%

2%

09/07/2008

49%

46%

2%

0%

0%

2%


FLORIDA

Obama

McCain

Barr

Nader

McKny

Not Sure

11/02/2008

49%

50%

0%

0%

0%

1%

10/26/2008

51%

47%

0%

0%

0%

1%

10/19/2008

48%

49%

0%

1%

0%

2%

10/12/2008

51%

46%

1%

0%

0%

2%

10/05/2008

52%

45%

0%

1%

0%

2%

09/28/2008

47%

47%

0%

1%

0%

5%

09/21/2008

46%

51%

0%

0%

0%

3%

09/14/2008

44%

49%

2%

2%

0%

3%

09/07/2008

48%

48%

0%

2%

0%

2%


MISSOURI

Obama

McCain

Barr

Nader

McKny

Not Sure

11/02/2008

49%

49%

0%

0%

0%

2%

10/26/2008

48%

47%

1%

2%

0%

3%

10/19/2008

49%

44%

1%

2%

1%

4%

10/12/2008

50%

47%

0%

1%

0%

2%

10/05/2008

50%

47%

1%

1%

0%

2%

09/11/2008

46%

51%

*

*

*

2%


N. CAROLINA

Obama

McCain

Barr

Nader

McKny

Not Sure

11/02/2008

49%

50%

0%

0%

0%

1%

10/26/2008

48%

49%

1%

1%

0%

2%

10/19/2008

51%

48%

0%

0%

0%

1%

10/12/2008

48%

48%

1%

0%

0%

3%

10/08/2008

49%

45%

*

*

*

2%

09/30/2008

50%

47%

*

*

*

5%

09/23/2008

49%

48%

*

*

*

3%

09/18/2008

47%

50%

*

*

*

3%


OHIO

Obama

McCain

Barr

Nader

McKny

Not Sure

11/02/2008

49%

49%

0%

1%

0%

1%

10/26/2008

49%

45%

1%

0%

0%

4%

10/19/2008

47%

49%

0%

1%

0%

2%

10/12/2008

49%

47%

0%

1%

0%

3%

10/05/2008

47%

48%

1%

1%

0%

3%

09/28/2008

47%

48%

0%

0%

0%

4%

09/21/2008

46%

50%

1%

1%

0%

2%

09/14/2008

45%

48%

0%

1%

0%

6%

09/07/2008

44%

51%

0%

1%

0%

3%


VIRGINIA

Obama

McCain

Barr

Nader

McKny

Not Sure

11/02/2008

51%

47%

0%

0%

0%

1%

10/26/2008

51%

47%

0%

0%

0%

2%

10/12/2008

50%

47%

1%

0%

0%

2%

10/05/2008

50%

48%

1%

0%

0%

1%

09/28/2008

50%

47%

0%

1%

1%

1%

09/21/2008

48%

50%

1%

0%

0%

1%

09/14/2008

48%

48%

0%

1%

0%

2%

09/07/2008

47%

49%

1%

1%

0%

2%

Selected Data

State

Cand.

Total

GOP

Dem

Other

CO

Obama

51%

10%

94%

56%

 

McCain

47%

89%

5%

39%

           

FL

Obama

49%

11%

88%

45%

 

McCain

50%

88%

12%

54%

           

MO

Obama

49%

5%

95%

45%

 

McCain

49%

94%

5%

50%

           

NC

Obama

49%

7%

84%

44%

 

McCain

50%

93%

15%

53%

           

OH

Obama

49%

9%

86%

44%

 

McCain

49%

91%

13%

49%

           

VA

Obama

51%

4%

97%

49%

 

McCain

47%

96%

3%

47%

Background

Rasmussen Reports conducted six state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on November 2, 2008. The surveys were conducted in Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. A total of 1,000 Likely Voters were interviewed in each state using the Rasmussen Reports automated telephone survey methodology (see www.RasmussenReports.com for details).

The margin of sampling error for the full sample in each state poll is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Caution should be used in interpreting subsets of the data as such results will have an even larger margin of sampling error.

Rasmussen Reports had conducted similar surveys in all six states for Fox News on October 26 and earlier this fall.

National

Latest RR Poll

With Leaners

Electoral College

Fav Rating

Ras Mkts

McCain (R)

45%

46%

163

55%

Obama (D)

50%

52%

260

56%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205





About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.