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Obama Leads McCain by Seven in Florida

Barack Obama has pulled ahead to his biggest lead yet over John McCain in Florida. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports survey of the state finds the Democrat ahead 52% to 45%.

With the release of the latest poll, Florida moves from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper righthand corner of this article.

Last week, the race was tied at 47%. Just one week prior, McCain had a five percentage point lead.

McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters and unfavorably by 43%. Obama’s ratings are 54% favorable, 43% unfavorable.

As for which candidate voters trust more, both men earn 47% support. Obama edges out McCain 51% to 46% on handling the economy and jobs, while McCain has a 51% to 44% advantage on national security and the war on terrorism.

The latest poll shows Obama dominating his opponent among unaffiliated voters in the state, 59% to 32%. McCain leads 54% to 43% among white voters in Florida, while Obama has a 67% to 33% lead among Hispanic voters (Premium Members can view full demographic crosstabs.)

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a % chance of winning Florida’s 27 Electoral College votes in November.

While over a third (34%) of Florida voters say they would be extremely comfortable with Obama as president, just 27% say that of McCain. However, more voters (41%) say they would not be at all comfortable with Obama in the White House than McCain (37%).

Florida voters are much more comfortable with Joe Biden than Sarah Palin for the Vice Presidency. While 38% say they would be extremely comfortable with Biden in office, 29% say that about Palin. Nearly half of voters (46%) say they would not be comfortable at all with Palin as VP, while just 28% say that about Biden.

Voters say they would choose McCain for advice for life’s toughest decision by a 48% to 47% margin.

Governor Charlie Crist earns good or excellent ratings from 51% of voters. Just 13% say the governor is doing a poor job.

President Bush’s job is rated good or excellent by 31% of voters in Florida, while 55% give his job performance a poor rating.

New polling was released Monday night with statewide results from Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and Virginia. See an overview of all five state polls and the latest Electoral College projections. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary).

Recent statewide Presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Washington. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

See results from recent polling on Senate races.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Florida

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

McCain (R)

50%

49%

Obama (D)

49%

49%

This telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 5, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Florida Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

50%

49%

10/26/2008

47%

51%

10/19/2008

49%

48%

10/12/2008

46%

51%

10/08/2008

47%

50%

10/05/2008

45%

52%

09/28/2008

47%

47%

09/24/2008

48%

47%

09/21/2008

51%

46%

09/14/2008

49%

44%

09/07/2008

48%

48%

08/18/2008

46%

43%

07/22/2008

45%

46%

06/26/2008

48%

41%

06/18/2008

47%

39%

05/19/2008

50%

40%

04/10/2008

53%

38%

03/12/2008

47%

43%

02/16/2008

53%

37%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Florida

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

38%

43%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

9%

Somewhat Unfavorable

19%

12%

Very Unfavorable

20%

36%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.