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Obama Leads Again in Florida

After John McCain pulled even in Florida a week ago, Barack Obama is back on top this week.

The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama with 51% of the vote while McCain gets support from 47%.

This is the fourth time in five weeks that Obama has held a single digit lead over McCain. Last week was the exception with McCain up by a single point.

McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of the state’s voters, Obama by 55%.

(Want a free daily e-mail update ? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Fifty-three percent (53%) of Florida voters say that the economy is the most important issue of Election 2008. Fifty-two percent (52%) trust Obama more on this issue while 46% trust McCain.

In terms of the candidates, 38% say they’re most interested in someone who can bring about the needed change. Twenty-three percent (23%) say they’re looking for someone with the right experience and 20% are looking for a candidate who shares their values. Democrats are most concerned about someone who can bring about change while Republicans are more concerned with a candidate who has the right experience.

Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John Kerry 52% to 47%. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a % chance of winning Florida’s 27 Electoral College votes this year. With release of this poll, Florida shifts from “Toss-Up to “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings.

Rasmussen Reports and Fox News Channel also have jointly released several other battleground state polls today, including numbers from Ohio, Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia. See an overview of this week’s Battleground State polls.

Rasmussen Reports earlier released new results from Arizona and California.

Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 286-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House Predict how many Electoral College votes Obama will win this year).

 

Recent statewide presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

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Florida

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

McCain (R)

50%

49%

Obama (D)

49%

49%

This telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 26, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Florida Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

50%

49%

10/26/2008

47%

51%

10/19/2008

49%

48%

10/12/2008

46%

51%

10/08/2008

47%

50%

10/05/2008

45%

52%

09/28/2008

47%

47%

09/24/2008

48%

47%

09/21/2008

51%

46%

09/14/2008

49%

44%

09/07/2008

48%

48%

08/18/2008

46%

43%

07/22/2008

45%

46%

06/26/2008

48%

41%

06/18/2008

47%

39%

05/19/2008

50%

40%

04/10/2008

53%

38%

03/12/2008

47%

43%

02/16/2008

53%

37%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Florida

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

38%

43%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

9%

Somewhat Unfavorable

19%

12%

Very Unfavorable

20%

36%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.