If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

 

McCain, Obama Tied in Florida

The race for Florida is now a dead heat, with Barack Obama and John McCain tied with 47% each, according to a new Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. Only five percent (5%) remain undecided.

In a survey released a week ago, McCain had a five-point lead. Five days ago he was ahead by just one, as Florida voters like many others around the country reacted to the country’s growing economic problems.

While McCain has had over 50% support several times since polling began in February, Obama has yet to get higher than the 48% support he collected the first week of September.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

The new survey was conducted Sunday night, two days after the first presidential debate. In a survey taken the day after the debate, 36% thought Obama won the debate, 33% gave the advantage to McCain, and 31% were undecided.

Nationally, after weeks of a neck-and-neck race, Obama has been pulling away from McCain for several days in the Rasmussen Reports national daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In Florida now, Mc Cain’s support among Republicans has dropped slightly which the percentage of Democrats backing Obama remains largely unchanged. Obama leads 51% to 39% among unaffiliated voters.

McCain leads among men 53% to 40%. Obama leads with women voters 53% to 42%.

The Republican is viewed favorably by 59%, unfavorably by 37%. Obama is viewed favorably by 52% of Florida voters, but 45% have an unfavorable view of him.

One-in-five Florida voters (21%) say they still may change their minds on the candidate they vote for in November, but 79% say they are already certain of their vote.

Among white Florida voters, McCain leads Obama 54% to 39. Forty-four percent (44%) say they would not be comfortable at all with Obama, the first African-American presidential nominee of a major political party, in the White House. Thirty-one percent (31%) feel that way about McCain.

Forty-two percent (42%) of white voters are not at all comfortable with Republican candidate Sarah Palin as vice president, compared to 39% who say that of Obama’s running mate, Senator Joseph Biden.

George W. Bush carried Florida in 2000 and 2004, and until recent days the state was considered fairly safe for McCain.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives McCain a % chance of winning Florida’s 27 Electoral College votes in November. With release of this poll, Florida moves from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper righthand corner of this article.

Florida voters trust Obama more than McCain on the economy (50% to 43%), but on national security the Republican is trusted more 55% to 43%. White voters trust McCain more in both areas. When asked which candidate they trust more in general, Florida voters give McCain a statistically insignificant one-point edge.

If voters had to make the toughest decision in their lives, 47% would seek advice from McCain, 44% from Obama.

For 51%, the economy is the most important issue in the election, while only 19% say national security. This gap has widened in recent days as bailout talks continue.

Six-out-of-10 Florida voters say they would be at least somewhat comfortable with either Obama or McCain as president.

Rasmussen Reports and Fox News Channel jointly release a series of battleground state polls every Monday at 6 p.m. Eastern. See overview of all polling released this week with results from Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Governor Charlie Crist, a Republican, gets good or excellent marks for his job performance from 47%, while 15% say he is doing a poor job.Twenty-seven percent (27%) say Bush is doing a good or excellent job as president, but over half (54%) give him a grade of poor.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Florida

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

McCain (R)

50%

49%

Obama (D)

49%

49%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 28, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Florida Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

50%

49%

10/26/2008

47%

51%

10/19/2008

49%

48%

10/12/2008

46%

51%

10/08/2008

47%

50%

10/05/2008

45%

52%

09/28/2008

47%

47%

09/24/2008

48%

47%

09/21/2008

51%

46%

09/14/2008

49%

44%

09/07/2008

48%

48%

08/18/2008

46%

43%

07/22/2008

45%

46%

06/26/2008

48%

41%

06/18/2008

47%

39%

05/19/2008

50%

40%

04/10/2008

53%

38%

03/12/2008

47%

43%

02/16/2008

53%

37%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Florida

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

38%

43%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

9%

Somewhat Unfavorable

19%

12%

Very Unfavorable

20%

36%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.