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Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 46%

Barack Obama now has a five-point lead – 51% to 46% -- on John McCain in Florida, according to the latest Fox News/Rasmussen reports telephone survey in the state. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr draws one percent (1%) of the vote.

McCain had generally been leading in Florida until late last month when the race was tied up. Since then Obama has been moving ahead. He led by seven points a week ago in the Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll. A poll conducted in the middle of last week showed Obama with a three-point advantage.

McCain is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 44%. For Obama, his favorables are 55%, his unfavorables 43%.

Nationally, with the steady drumbeat of bad economic news, Obama has opened a stable lead over McCain in both the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll and the Electoral College projections.

In Florida, both candidates are drawing 87% support from members of their own parties. Unaffiliated voters favor Obama 56% to 37%. While McCain leads among White Voters, he trails among Hispanic voters 64% to 34%. Obama leads by nine points among women but trails by two among men (see full demographic crosstabs).

Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John Kerry 52% to 47%. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state.

Florida voters are evenly divided over which candidate they trust more in general and which candidate they would ask advice of if faced with the toughest decision of their lives. That is a shift from earlier this fall when McCain was trusted by more Sunshine State voters.

Fifty-six percent (56%) say the economy is the most important issue in this election, while 19% say national security is number one. As in much of the country, Florida voters trust Obama more on the economy and McCain more on national security.

Forty-five percent (45%) say they would be very or extremely comfortable with Obama in the White House. Forty-one percent (41%) say the same of McCain. Thirty-nine percent (39%) would be not at all comfortable with Obama as president, compared to 36% who believe that of McCain.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a % chance of winning Florida’s 27 Electoral College votes nest month. At the time this poll was released, Florida was rated as “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper righthand corner of this article.

Forty-eight percent of Florida voters say they would be very or extremely comfortable with Obama’s running mate, Joseph Biden, as vice president. Thirty-one percent (31%) say they would not be comfortable at all with Biden in that position.

As for GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, 39% say they would be very or extremely comfortable with her in the number two position, but 49% say they would be not at all comfortable with that.

New polling on the presidential race is also being released today from Virginia North Carolina, Ohio, and Missouri. See an overview of all five state polls and the latest Electoral College projections. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary).

Recent statewide presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Washington.

Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members . Learn More .

More than half of Florida voters (55%) give Governor Charlie Crist good or excellent marks for his job performance. Just 14% say he is doing a poor job.

President Bush is doing a good or excellent job according to 33%, but 52% rate his performance as poor.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Florida

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

McCain (R)

50%

49%

Obama (D)

49%

49%

This telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 12, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Florida Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

50%

49%

10/26/2008

47%

51%

10/19/2008

49%

48%

10/12/2008

46%

51%

10/08/2008

47%

50%

10/05/2008

45%

52%

09/28/2008

47%

47%

09/24/2008

48%

47%

09/21/2008

51%

46%

09/14/2008

49%

44%

09/07/2008

48%

48%

08/18/2008

46%

43%

07/22/2008

45%

46%

06/26/2008

48%

41%

06/18/2008

47%

39%

05/19/2008

50%

40%

04/10/2008

53%

38%

03/12/2008

47%

43%

02/16/2008

53%

37%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Florida

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

38%

43%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

9%

Somewhat Unfavorable

19%

12%

Very Unfavorable

20%

36%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.