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Florida: McCain 50% Obama 40%

Barack Obama is heading to Florida this week and has a lot of catching up to do in the race for the Sunshine State’s twenty-seven Electoral College votes.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows McCain attracting 50% of the vote while Obama earns 40%. Last month, McCain led by fifteen points. This is the third Florida poll in four months to show McCain with a double digit lead. Just 57% of Florida Democrats say they will vote for Obama while 27% plan to vote for McCain. The two candidates are essentially even among unaffiliated voters.

McCain leads among voters who earn more than $40,000 annually while Obama leads among lower income voters. In most states, McCain does well among middle income voters while Obama leads among those at both the lower-and-upper income brackets. In a trend seen in other states, Obama leads among those who rarely or never attend church while McCain leads among churchgoers.

Obama also leads by twenty-two percentage points among voters under thirty. However, voters 30 and older, McCain has a comfortable lead.

Rasmussen Markets shows that McCain is currently given a % chance of winning Florida this fall. As this poll is released, Florida is rated “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. Balance of Power projections indicate that the Electoral College scoreboard is a toss-up at this time.

McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of the state’s voters, Obama by 48%. Compared to a month ago, that’s a twelve-point decline for McCain and a six-point gain for Obama.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Florida voters say it’s more important to bring troops home from Iraq than to win the War in that troubled country. Thirty-five percent (35%) say victory is the higher priority. Nationally, voters place somewhat more importance on winning the War.

In Florida, 43% believe the U.S. is likely to win in Iraq if McCain is elected. Just 24% say victory is likely if Obama is the next President. However, 59% say a President Obama is likely to get the troops home during his first term. Just 38% see such an outcome in McCain is elected.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of Florida voters believe Hillary Clinton would be a stronger general election candidate than Obama. Forty-two percent (42%) see Obama as the stronger candidate. Among Democrats, the results are very similar—48% see Clinton as the stronger candidate while 45% say that label applies to Obama.

Although Barack Obama is virtually assured of being the Democratic nominee, 28% of Florida Democrats want him to drop out of the race. Just 36% say Clinton should withdraw.

In the unlikely event that Clinton wins the Democratic Presidential Nomination, she leads John McCain by six percentage points in Florida, 47% to 41%.

Although George W. Bush won a majority of the vote in Florida just four years ago, only 34% of the state’s voters now say he is doing a good or an excellent job. Most Florida voters—53%--say he is doing a poor job.

Republican Governor Charlie Crist earns much better reviews—50% good or excellent and 17% poor.

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Florida

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

McCain (R)

50%

49%

Obama (D)

49%

49%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 19, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Florida Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

50%

49%

10/26/2008

47%

51%

10/19/2008

49%

48%

10/12/2008

46%

51%

10/08/2008

47%

50%

10/05/2008

45%

52%

09/28/2008

47%

47%

09/24/2008

48%

47%

09/21/2008

51%

46%

09/14/2008

49%

44%

09/07/2008

48%

48%

08/18/2008

46%

43%

07/22/2008

45%

46%

06/26/2008

48%

41%

06/18/2008

47%

39%

05/19/2008

50%

40%

04/10/2008

53%

38%

03/12/2008

47%

43%

02/16/2008

53%

37%

Florida Trends: McCain vs. Clinton

Date

McCain

Clinton

05/19/2008

41%

47%

04/10/2008

44%

45%

03/12/2008

47%

40%

02/16/2008

49%

43%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Florida

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

38%

43%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

9%

Somewhat Unfavorable

19%

12%

Very Unfavorable

20%

36%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.