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Colorado: Obama 48% McCain 42%

Barack Obama has opened a modest lead over John McCain in Colorado.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Obama leading 48% to 42%. That six-point advantage is up from a three-point edge a month ago. The month before that, Obama and McCain were tied in the race for the Colorado’s Electoral College Votes.

Obama’s 48% level of support in the current poll is up two points from the 46% level of support he picked up in each of the three preceding polls. Over the last four months of polling, McCain’s support in Colorado has ranged from 39% to 46%.

Obama now attracts 77% of the vote from Democrats while McCain earns 79% support from Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama leads by twenty-one percentage points. A month ago, Obama had a ten-point lead among unaffiliated voters.

Obama is viewed favorably by 55% of Colorado voters, up two points from a month ago. McCain is viewed favorably by 51%, down six points from a month ago.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning Colorado’s nine Electoral College votes this November. George W. Bush won the state by five percentage points in Election 2004 but Democrats consider it a prime target for switching parties in 2008. At the time this poll was released, Colorado was rated as a “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

The economy is the top issue for 41% of the state’s voters. Among this segment of the electorate, Obama leads 53% to 39%. The War in Iraq is the highest priority for 21% and those voters favor Obama by a 63% to 28% margin. Ten percent (10%) of Colorado voters say immigration is most important and among this group, McCain leads 72% to 20%.

By a 54% to 39% margin, Colorado voters say that bringing troops home from Iraq is more important than winning the War in that troubled country. These figures are similar to the national average.

Forty-four percent (44%) say the U.S. is likely to win the War if McCain is elected. Just 20% expect victory if Obama is the next President. However, 60% believe that Obama will bring the troops home during his first term while just 35% have such confidence in McCain.

Forty-seven percent (47%) of Colorado voters believe Obama would be a stronger general election candidate than Hillary Clinton against McCain. Thirty-seven percent (37%) hold the opposite view. Democrats in the state see Obama as the stronger candidate by a 64% to 30% margin. Republicans, by a 43% to 29% margin, see Clinton as the tougher general election challenge.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of Colorado Democrats say it’s time for Clinton to drop out of the race. Just 13% say Obama should withdraw. Most Colorado Republicans would like Clinton to remain in the race.

Colorado is one of the few states where Obama clearly outperforms Clinton in general election match-ups. In the unlikely event that Clinton were to win the Democratic nomination, she trails McCain 47% to 44% in the state. Over a week ago, a Rasmussen Reports analysis indicated that the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination is effectively over and Obama is likely to be the nominee.

Four years ago, George W. Bush won 52% of the vote in Colorado. Today, just 31% say he is doing a good or an excellent job. Most Colorado voters—51%--say the President is doing a poor job.

Democrats also have reason to smile about the latest polling results in the race to become Colorado’s next United States Senator.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

Colorado
Leans Democratic

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

47%

46%

44%

Obama (D)

51%

51%

50%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 19, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Colorado Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

47%

51%

10/26/2008

46%

50%

10/19/2008

46%

51%

10/16/2008

45%

52%

10/05/2008

45%

51%

09/28/2008

48%

49%

09/23/2008

47%

50%

09/14/2008

48%

46%

09/07/2008

46%

49%

08/13/2008

47%

45%

07/21/2008

42%

49%

06/17/2008

41%

43%

05/19/2008

42%

48%

04/16/2008

43%

46%

03/17/2008

46%

46%

02/11/2008

39%

46%

Colorado Trends: McCain vs. Clinton

Date

McCain

Clinton

05/19/2008

47%

44%

04/16/2008

50%

36%

03/17/2008

52%

38%

02/11/2008

49%

35%

11/28/2007

44%

40%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Colorado

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

36%

43%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

11%

Somewhat Unfavorable

20%

10%

Very Unfavorable

21%

35%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.