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California: Obama 56% McCain 40%

Barack Obama continues to enjoy a very solid lead over John McCain in California as concerns about the economy dominate the election dialogue nationwide.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of California voters shows Obama attracting 56% of the vote while McCain earns 40% (see crosstabs).

These results are virtually the same as both last month and the month before. Nationally, Obama has opened a stable lead over McCain in both the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll and the Electoral College projections.

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Forty-six percent (46%) of California voters say that the economy is the top voting issue this year. Just 4% say the nation’s economy is in good or excellent shape while 69% rate it as poor. Only 1% believe that economic conditions are getting better while 87% say they are getting worse., the Democrat was ahead of his Republican rival 51% to 37%.

Fifty-six percent (56%) trust Obama more than McCain on economic issues while 38% have the opposite view and trust McCain more.

Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of California voters, McCain by 46%.

As for the running mates, Joe Biden earns favorable reviews from 54% while 39% say the same about Sarah Palin.

Rasmussen Markets data show that Democrats have a % chance of winning California this November. Al Gore beat George W. Bush by 11 points in California in the 2000 election, and four years later John Kerry carried the state by 10 points. At the time this poll was released, California is listed as "Safely Democratic" in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s job performance earns good or excellent marks from 35% of voters, but 33% say he is doing a poor job.

President George W. Bush gets good or excellent marks from just 23% while 63% say he is doing a poor job.

Currently, Obama has the edge in every single state won by John Kerry four years ago. However, of the states won by George Bush, McCain is trailing in four and five others are considered a toss-up. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 255-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 300-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.

Recent statewide Presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

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See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

California Safe Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

34%

38%

37%

Obama (D)

61%

58%

55%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 9, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


California Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/25/2008

34%

61%

10/09/2008

40%

56%

09/22/2008

39%

56%

08/20/2008

37%

51%

07/24/2008

38%

50%

06/23/2008

30%

58%

05/20/2008

38%

52%

04/16/2008

43%

50%

03/12/2008

38%

53%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in California

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

19%

52%

Somewhat Favorable

25%

15%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

8%

Very Unfavorable

30%

22%

Not Sure

2%

2%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.