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California: Obama 52% McCain 38%

In California, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Barack Obama leading John McCain 52% to 38%. That's an improvement for Obama whose lead had slipped to seven percentage points in April. But, it’s the second time in three months that Obama has enjoyed a double digit lead in the nation’s most populous state.

Looking back over the past three polls, Obama’s support has remained steady ranging from a low of 50% to a high of 53%. McCain’s support bounced to 43% in April but was at 38% in both March and May.

Rasmussen Markets data show that Democrats have a % of winning California’s fifty-four Electoral College votes this November. John Kerry won the state by ten percentage points in Election 2004. Four years earlier, Al Gore won an eleven point victory in the state. No Republican has won California since the first President Bush in 1988. California is rated as a "Strongly Democratic" in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. Nationally, the race between McCain and Obama remains competitive in the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll.

Obama is viewed favorably by 57% of California voters, McCain by 46%. Those figures have changed little in the past month.

Forty-two percent (42%) of voters named the economy as the top issue of Election 2008. Eighteen percent (18%) named the War in Iraq as most important while 14% believe immigration is the highest priority. Nationally, a new survey found that, for Republican voters, judicial appointments are a more important voting issue than the War in Iraq.

Among those who see the economy as the top issue, Obama leads 61% to 29%. Those voting primarily on the War favor Obama 73% to 26% while those voting on immigration favor McCain 60% to 31%.

By a 63% to 29% margin, California voters say getting troops home from Iraq is a higher priority than winning the War. Nationally, voters are somewhat more committed to victory than Californians, but a modest majority nationwide still say getting the troops home is most important.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) say it’s likely the U.S. will win the War if McCain is elected. Twenty-five percent (25%) say victory is likely with a President Obama. Sixty-four percent (64%) believe Obama will get the troops home during his first term while just 34% believe McCain would do the same.

California voters are evenly divided as to which Democrat would be the stronger general election candidate against McCain—45% say Obama while 43% believe Clinton would do better. Among Democratic voters, 50% think Obama is the better candidate while 42% say Clinton.

Thirty-six percent (36%) of Democrats believe Clinton should drop out of the race while 48% say she should not. Eighteen percent (18%) believe Obama should drop out. A recent national survey found that 29% of Democrats believe Clinton should run as an Independent Presidential candidate.

Twenty-two percent (22%) of California voters say that President Bush is doing a good or excellent job. Most—59%--say he is doing a poor job.

California’s Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger gets good or excellent reviews from 35%. Twenty-eight percent (28%) say he is doing a poor job.

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California Safe Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

34%

38%

37%

Obama (D)

61%

58%

55%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 19-20, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


California Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/25/2008

34%

61%

10/09/2008

40%

56%

09/22/2008

39%

56%

08/20/2008

37%

51%

07/24/2008

38%

50%

06/23/2008

30%

58%

05/20/2008

38%

52%

04/16/2008

43%

50%

03/12/2008

38%

53%

California Trends: McCain vs. Clinton

Date

McCain

Clinton

05/20/2008

35%

54%

04/16/2008

42%

47%

03/12/2008

39%

46%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in California

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

19%

52%

Somewhat Favorable

25%

15%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

8%

Very Unfavorable

30%

22%

Not Sure

2%

2%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.