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McCain Maintains Solid Lead in Arkansas

John McCain’s lead over Barack Obama in Arkansas remains stable. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the Republican leading 51% to 42%.

McCain had a 10-point lead in July and was ahead by nine points in June. His leads were nearly double that when the state’s long-serving first lady, Hillary Clinton, was still battling it out with Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination.

This month, McCain leads 56% to 31% among unaffiliated voters in Arkansas. He also has a 53% to 40% advantage among men and a 50% to 43% edge among women.

Arkansas has cast its six Electoral College votes for Republican candidates in five out of the last seven Presidential elections. In 2004, George W. Bush won the state by a 54% to 45% margin.

McCain is viewed favorably by 60% of voters and unfavorably by 38%. Obama’s ratings are 47% favorable, 52% unfavorable.

Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a % chance of carrying Arkansas this fall. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join , so add your voice to the collective wisdom. The state is listed as “Likely Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Obama’s running mate, Joseph Biden, is viewed favorably by 44% of Arkansas voters and unfavorably by 49%. Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 58% and unfavorably by 39%.

Voters in Arkansas think McCain made the right choice with Palin by a 56% to 34% margin. They disagree with Obama’s choice of Biden 49% to 27%. A plurality of voters (43%) considers Palin to be very conservative. Just 17% of voters see Biden as very liberal, while 28% view the Democrat as politically moderate.

Sixty-two percent (62) of Arkansas voters say they will be voting with enthusiasm for their candidate. That number includes 77% of Obama supporters and just 57% of McCain voters. A third (33%) says they will be voting primarily against the opposing candidate, a number that includes 39% of McCain voters and 21% of Obama voters.

Though President Bush enjoyed a solid victory in the state four years ago, only 29% of voters now say he is doing a good or excellent job as president. Over half (53%) give his job performance a poor rating.

Governor Mike Beebe, a Democrat, earns good or excellent marks for his job performance from 70% of voters, while just five percent (5%) say he is doing a poor job.

Polling has been released this week for California, Colorado, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling data are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

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Arkansas Likely Republican

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

54%

51%

51%

Obama (D)

44%

41%

39%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on September 22, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Arkansas Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/27/2008

54%

44%

09/22/2008

51%

42%

07/17/2008

47%

37%

06/12/2008

48%

39%

05/12/2008

57%

33%

03/18/2008

59%

30%

Arkansas Trends: McCain vs. Clinton

Date

McCain

Clinton

5/12/2008

39%

53%

3/18/2008

50%

43%


Favorable Ratings For Presidential Candidates in Arkansas

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

33%

32%

Somewhat Favorable

28%

14%

Somewhat Unfavorable

17%

14%

Very Unfavorable

20%

39%

Not Sure

2%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.