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Arkansas: McCain Up by Ten

The Presidential race in Arkansas has remained relatively steady over the past month. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Natural State finds John McCain leading Barack Obama 47% to 37%. When “leaners” are included, the GOP is ahead 52% to 39%.

Last month, McCain had a nine-point lead. That number was an astonishing change from May, P rior to Hillary Clinton’s exit from the race, McCain led Obama by twenty-four points. The Clinton impact was bigger in Arkansas than anywhere else due to her lengthy tenure as the state’s First Lady.

Arkansas has cast its six Electoral College votes for Republican candidates in five out of the last seven Presidential elections. In 2004, George W. Bush won the state by a 54% to 45% margin. Nationally, Obama holds a modest edge over McCain in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

McCain is backed by 91% of Republicans in Arkansas Obama earns support from 67% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, McCain leads 67% to 16%.

There is a huge racial divide as well. McCain leads 55% to 27% among white voters in Arkansas, while Obama leads 93% to 2% among black voters. The Republican has a 52% to 33% advantage among men, but the two candidates are essentially even among women.

The Republican’s favorability ratings have improved somewhat over the past month. He is now viewed favorably by 59%, up from 57% last month. Thirty-nine percent (39%) have an unfavorable view of McCain, down from 40% last month. Obama’s numbers have essentially stayed the same. The Democrat is viewed favorably by 45% and unfavorably by 53%

Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a % chance of winning Arkansas Electoral College votes this fall. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join , so add your voice to the collective wisdom. The state is listed as “Likely Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Not surprisingly, the plurality (45%) of Arkansas voters names the economy as the most important issue of Election 2008. National security is a distant second, with 25% of voters who think it is the most important issue.

High gas and oil prices are considered by voters to be one of the biggest short term threats to the economy. Two-thirds of Arkansas voters (65%) favor drilling in offshore oil wells, while 59% say it is likely gas prices would decrease if this practice were implemented. Over half (56%) of Arkansas voters favor drilling in the Alaskan Wildlife Refuge, while 32% disagree.

While voters in Arkansas are in favor of domestic oil drilling, they are not so supportive when it comes to conservation. Two-thirds (64%) oppose a proposal to lower the national speed limit to 55 mph, while 25% agree with the idea. Nearly half of voters in Arkansas (48%) say reducing the price of oil and gas is more important than protecting the environment, while 36% think the latter is more important.

President George W. Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 34% of voters in Arkansas, while 53% think he is doing a poor job.

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Arkansas Likely Republican

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

54%

51%

51%

Obama (D)

44%

41%

39%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 17, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Arkansas Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/27/2008

54%

44%

09/22/2008

51%

42%

07/17/2008

47%

37%

06/12/2008

48%

39%

05/12/2008

57%

33%

03/18/2008

59%

30%

Arkansas Trends: McCain vs. Clinton

Date

McCain

Clinton

5/12/2008

39%

53%

3/18/2008

50%

43%


Favorable Ratings For Presidential Candidates in Arkansas

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

33%

32%

Somewhat Favorable

28%

14%

Somewhat Unfavorable

17%

14%

Very Unfavorable

20%

39%

Not Sure

2%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.