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Arkansas: McCain 57% Obama 33%

In Arkansas, John McCain leads Barack Obama by twenty-four percentage points. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows McCain attracting 57% of the vote while Obama earns 33%.

McCain build this margin by winning 92% of the Republican vote, 38% support from Democrats, and leading Obama by twenty-four percentage points among unaffiliated voters.

McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of Arkansas voters, Obama by 38%.

In March, McCain had a twenty-nine percentage point lead over Obama.

Rasmussen Markets shows that Republicans are currently given a % chance of winning the Six Electoral College Votes from Arkansas this fall. George W. Bush won the state by six percentage points in Election 2000 and by ten points in 2004. At the time this poll was released, Arkansas was rated as “Likely Republican" in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Arkansas is one of the few states where Hillary Clinton could absolutely make the case that she is more electable. Clinton leads McCain by fourteen percentage points (53% to 39%). However, this is not enough to change the outcome of the Democratic Presidential Nomination process. As Rasmussen Reports noted last week, the Democratic race is effectively over and Obama will be the party’s nominee.

Forty-seven percent (47%) of Arkansas voters say that the economy is the top voting issue in Election 2008.

Most—54%--favor the federal gas tax holiday as proposed in slightly different forms by McCain and Clinton. Just 36% oppose that plan. Nationally, voters are evenly divided on the question.

Just 32% believe the federal government needs more revenue to fund important national programs. Nationally, that figure is 37%. In Arkansas, 57% say the federal government does not need any more money.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Arkansas voters are worried that the next President will raise taxes so much that it harms the economy. A separate survey recently found that 60% of voters nationwide believe that tax hikes are bad for the economy.

Thirty-one percent (31%) are worried that the next President will cut taxes so much that it harms important government programs.

By a 64% to 17% margin, Arkansas voters oppose an increase in the capital gains tax. Nationwide, 65% oppose a capital gains tax hike.

Forty-two percent (42%) of Arkansas voters own at least $5,000 worth of stocks, bonds, and mutual funds.

Four years ago, George W. Bush won 54% of the vote in Arkansas. Today, just half that number—27%--say he is doing a good or an excellent job. Fifty-five percent (55%) say the President is doing a poor job.

Sixty-three percent (63%) say Governor Mike Beebe is doing a good or excellent job while just 11% give him poor marks.

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Arkansas Likely Republican

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

54%

51%

51%

Obama (D)

44%

41%

39%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on May 12, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Arkansas Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/27/2008

54%

44%

09/22/2008

51%

42%

07/17/2008

47%

37%

06/12/2008

48%

39%

05/12/2008

57%

33%

03/18/2008

59%

30%

Arkansas Trends: McCain vs. Clinton

Date

McCain

Clinton

5/12/2008

39%

53%

3/18/2008

50%

43%


Favorable Ratings For Presidential Candidates in Arkansas

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

33%

32%

Somewhat Favorable

28%

14%

Somewhat Unfavorable

17%

14%

Very Unfavorable

20%

39%

Not Sure

2%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.