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Arkansas: Clinton Supporters Help Pull Obama Within Single Digits

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Arkansas shows John McCain leading Barack Obama 48% to 39%. That’s a stunning improvement for Obama who trailed by twenty-four points a month ago. This is most likely a direct result of the former Clinton supporters accepting Obama now that he has clinched the nomination. Nationally, Obama has enjoyed a modest bounce since winning that prize.

The Clinton impact is bigger in Arkansas than anywhere else due to her lengthy tenure as the state’s First Lady. Sixty percent (60%) of the state’s Democrats believe that Clinton should be Barack Obama’s running mate. Among all voters in the state, 42% believe Clinton should be offered the Vice Presidential nomination while 38% disagree.

McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of Arkansas voters, unchanged over the past month. He is viewed unfavorably by 40%.

Obama’s numbers have improved significantly over the past month—45% have a favorable opinion of the presumptive Democratic nominee. Most Arkansas voters—54%--still have an unfavorable opinion of Obama.

Most Arkansas voters—56%--also believe that Obama is too inexperienced to be President. That’s well above the national average. Just 27% believe that McCain is too old, a figure right in line with the nation-at-large.

McCain earns the vote from 87% of Arkansas voters and enjoys a three-to-one lead among unaffiliated voters. Obama is supported by 69% of Democrats.

Rasmussen Markets shows that Republicans are currently given a % chance of winning the Six Electoral College Votes from Arkansas this fall. George W. Bush won the state by six percentage points in Election 2000 and by ten points in 2004. With release of this poll, Arkansas has shifted from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican" in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Arkansas voters say it is more important to get troops home from Iraq than to win the War. Thirty-nine percent (39%) disagree and say victory is more important. Those figures are very close to the national average. Sixty-three percent (63%) say Obama is at least somewhat likely to get the troops home during his first term in office. Just 33% say the same result is likely if McCain wins in November.

Sharing a skepticism with voters across the country, 70% of Arkansas voters say that the federal government has become a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests. Only 10% disagree. Just 12% believe the government today represents the will of the people and just 46% say American elections are fair to voters. Eighty-two percent (82%) are confident their votes will be accurately counted in November and that the appropriate candidates will be declared victorious.

George W. Bush won 54% of the Arkansas vote four years ago. Today, however, just 31% of the state’s voters say he is doing a good or an excellent job. Most, 54% say the President is doing a poor job.

Democratic Governor Mike Beebe gets a much better report card from voters—65% say he is doing a good or an excellent job while only 7% say poor.

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Arkansas Likely Republican

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

54%

51%

51%

Obama (D)

44%

41%

39%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on June 12, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Arkansas Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/27/2008

54%

44%

09/22/2008

51%

42%

07/17/2008

47%

37%

06/12/2008

48%

39%

05/12/2008

57%

33%

03/18/2008

59%

30%

Arkansas Trends: McCain vs. Clinton

Date

McCain

Clinton

5/12/2008

39%

53%

3/18/2008

50%

43%


Favorable Ratings For Presidential Candidates in Arkansas

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

33%

32%

Somewhat Favorable

28%

14%

Somewhat Unfavorable

17%

14%

Very Unfavorable

20%

39%

Not Sure

2%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.