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McCain Takes 21-Point Lead in Arizona

John McCain, in his home state of Arizona, now has a 21-point lead over Barack Obama, the biggest gap yet in the race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds McCain leading 59% to 38%. In late July, the Arizona Republican had a 16-point lead and only led by nine a month earlier.

McCain has a dominating 59% to 40% lead among unaffiliated voters in Arizona. He also leads 63% to 36% among men and 55% to 41% among women (Premium Members can view full demographic crosstabs).

Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a % chance of winning Arizona this November. The state, with six Electoral College votes, is currently rated as “Likely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

McCain is viewed favorably by 62% of voters in Arizona and unfavorably by 33%. The Demcrat’s ratings are 43% favorable, 51% unfavorable.

Republicans have been critical of Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano's campaigning around the country for Obama, but a majority of the state's voters approve of her doing so. Over half (53%) say the governor should be able to do what she wants on her own time, while 42% say she should stay focused on Arizona. Democrats overwhelmingly support their governor’s right to do what she wants by a 71% to 19% margin, while Republicans think she should stick to governing the state by a 59% to 36% margin. Unaffiliated voters are more evenly divided.

Napolitano earns good or excellent ratings from 52% of voters, while 32% say she is doing a poor job.

(Want a free daily e-mail update ? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

As in nearly all states, the plurality of voters in Arizona say economy is the top issue of the upcoming election. Voters believe McCain’s economic plan would help their own state’s economy the most by a 53% to 30% margin. Just nine percent (9%) think neither candidate has a good economic plan. When it comes to the nation’s economy, voters in Arizona trust McCain more by a 55% to 34% margin.

Most voters in Arizona (63%) think creating economic growth is more important than reducing the gap between rich and poor. Twenty-eight percent (28%) take the opposite view. Most voters believe McCain’s top priority is to create economic growth, while they think Obama’s is bridging the income gap.

Just 10% of Arizona voters give the economy good or excellent ratings, while 54% give it a poor rating. Only five percent (5%) say economic conditions are getting better, while 85% say they are getting worse. Similar sentiments on the economy can be found nationwide.

President Bush earns good or excellent job approval ratings from 38% of Arizona voters. Forty-percent (40%) say he is doing a poor job in the White House.

Rasmussen Reports and Fox News Channel jointly release a series of battleground state polls every Monday at 6 p.m. Eastern. See overview of all polling released this week with results from Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Arizona Likely Republican

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

51%

54%

52%

Obama (D)

46%

40%

39%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 29, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Arizona Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/26/2008

51%

46%

09/29/2008

59%

38%

07/31/2008

52%

36%

06/25/2008

49%

40%

04/152007

57%

37%

Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Arizona

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

32%

35%

Somewhat Favorable

27%

14%

Somewhat Unfavorable

16%

10%

Very Unfavorable

24%

40%

Not Sure

2%

1%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.