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Alaska: McCain Lead Holds Steady at 44% to 39% Despite Stevens' Woes

The indictment of Alaska Senator Ted Stevens has given the Republicans a big hill to climb in the Alaska Senate race but has not shaken up the campaign for Alaska’s three Electoral College votes.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey in the state shows John McCain still holding a five-percentage point lead over Barack Obama, 44% to 39%. When “leaners” are included in the total, McCain now leads 48% to 42%. The survey was the first in the state conducted following the Stevens’ indictment and was completed on Wednesday night.

While closer than expected, the race has remained remarkably stable. Two weeks ago, it was McCain 45%, Obama 40%. A month ago, the Republican candidate was ahead 45%to 41%.

Nationally, the race remains very close in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

McCain, however, is now viewed favorably by 65% of Alaska voters, up two points from the previous survey and up eight since June. Obama is viewed favorably by 52%, down just a single point from each of the previous two surveys.

Twenty-nine percent (29%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 28% hold a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, the numbers are 24% Very Favorable and just 13% Very Unfavorable.

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is often mentioned as a potential Vice Presidential running mate for John McCain. Nationally, she is little known—just 11% have a favorable opinion of her while 19% hold an unfavorable view. The vast majority—70%--have no opinion.

But she is popular in her home state and is seen by most Alaska voters as more ethical than the typical politician. Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters rate Palin’s job performance as excellent or good versus only 14% who view it as poor. Palin is seen as more ethical than most politicians by 51% of Alaska voters. Another 33% say she is as ethical as her peers.

At the time this article was released, Rasmussen Markets data gave Palin a 20% chance of being McCain’s running mate. That put her in the number three position behind Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty. Market data is updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. Current pricing suggests that Palin has a % of getting the VP nod. You are invited to participate in the Rasmussen Markets, it costs nothing to join.

Since Alaska became a state, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 is the only Democratic presidential candidate who has ever won there. George W. Bush carried the state by 25 points in 2004 and 31 points four years earlier.

Rasmussen Markets currently gives Republicans an % chance of winning Alaska’s three Electoral College votes in November. At the time the poll was released, Alaska was rated as “Likely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right corner of this article.

In Alaska, McCain is supported by 79% of Republicans. Obama earns the vote from 75% of Democrats and enjoys a 12-percentage point lead among unaffiliated voters. Full crosstabs are available for Premium Members.

President Bush’s job approval rating tends to track better in Alaska than much of the rest of the country. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say the President is doing a good or an excellent job while 46% rate his performance as poor.

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Alaska Safe Republican

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

57%

59%

56%

Obama (D)

41%

38%

38%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 30, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Alaska Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/28/2008

57%

41%

10/06/2008

55%

40%

09/09/2008

64%

33%

07/30/2008

44%

39%

07/17/2008

45%

40%

06/16/2008

45%

41%

05/14/2008

50%

41%

04/07/2008

48%

43%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Alaska

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

38%

33%

Somewhat Favorable

25%

15%

Somewhat Unfavorable

20%

12%

Very Unfavorable

17%

40%

Not Sure

0%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.